Look, if Apple just made the watch open source with fully-user-upgradable parts and modular CPU + display + battery, and a command line interface, they would reach dozens of new customers.

> dozens

Even if there are 7 dozen extra customers, that's maximum (looks up price of most expensive Apple Watch) of 7 * 12 * $799 = $67k.

And the cost to acquire those customers including the development costs?

Apple made a profit of $99 billion in 2022. $67K is the amount Apple made about every 20 seconds.

> “Apple is doomed any day now”. That’s been the narrative for over 40 years.

And they almost went out of business at least twice, once they survived because MS bailed them out.

Apple pre-iPod was a source of amusing commercials. Pre iPhone they were the catalyst for change in the music industry, but they were still a consumer goods company with one product that had pretty wide, but still overall limited appeal.

Apple still doesn't have a diversified revenue stream. If Microsoft had to stop selling Windows today, they'd still make a fortune from Office. If Microsoft had to stop selling Office and Windows today, they'd still make a (much smaller) fortune from Azure.

Just Mac revenue by itself would be the envy of most companies.

But you can easily look at Apple’s revenue breakdown between Mac, iPads, services, wearables, etc and see that it is well diversified.

And Microsoft never “bailed them out”. Before the MS deal was signed, Apple had already gotten a line of credit for a couple of billion. The $250 million that Microsoft invested in Apple was nothing.

Apple turned around and used $100 million to buy out PowerComputings Mac license. It didn’t become profitable for another two years. The little money that Microsoft invested didn’t make a difference.

Microsoft’s financial contribution was nothing, but Office on Mac was huge. Had there been some third OS that was thriving so Microsoft didn’t feel the need to prop Apple up for antitrust reasons, the world would be different.

But so what? I can’t believe someone is seriously arguing that the failures of the Scully era are somehow damning to Apple under Cook. Sure, every company can fail. Apple is the most profitable company in the world right now, so it’s an odd time to sing doom songs.

Office had been on the Mac since the 80s. Microsoft didn’t just wake up one day in 1997 and decide to port Office to the Mac.

They promised to keep doing what they were already doing.

What % of those wearables and services are tied to devices?

If iPhones vanished tomorrow, how much trouble would Apple be in? Wearables are 100% attach rate to iPhone, and I'd presume so are the vast majority of service subscribers.

> Before the MS deal was signed, Apple had already gotten a line of credit for a couple of billion. The $250 million that Microsoft invested in Apple was nothing.

As others said, the software support, browser + office were huge.

They would still have Mac revenue that is more than they ever had pre-iPhone.

No one picks azure unless they are a windows shop.

Are you saying that "any day now" and "next 90 years" are the same narrative?

Seeing that Apple and Microsoft both have a history of staying relevant for over 45 years, Microsoft has been one of the most valuable companies in the world for two decades and Apple for over a decade, I would bet on these two companies before any other company.

But it’s not good enough just to be right, you have to be right at the right time. How many products categories failed during the dot com bust that are doing well now?

It’s like me predicting the heat death of the sun. There is a big difference between saying it will happen eventually and that it will happen tomorrow.