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How is it unlikely?

Hydrogen is a more common choice than helium for unmanned balloons. Only 12 of 101 weather balloon launch sites operated by the US's national weather service use helium[1], and that's with unusually cheap helium access in the US. I would expect other countries to use helium even less frequently.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/04/04/weather-ba...




We can conclusively settle the missile warhead question.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/...

> GEN. VANHERCK: Yeah, absolutely. There was a warhead in the missile. You can see that explosion on TV as it goes through the lower part of the balloon and right there through the superstructure.




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