I'm sorry, but you've still ducked the question. Why does a white/asian guy with a 3.5 GPA have a lower future potential than a black/hispanic guy with a 2.6 (all else held equal)?
Even if you assume that the statistical distribution of black GPAs is lower due to culture, it does not logically follow that the black guy has higher potential.
> Why does a white/asian guy with a 3.5 GPA have a lower future potential than a black/hispanic guy with a 2.6 (all else held equal)
As far as I know, no one is arguing that he does. Additionally (and I could be wrong here as I don't know where to find the data), I suspect that that affirmative action is never responsible for a white/asian guy with a 3.5 GPA getting passed over for a black/hispanic guy with a 2.6 (all else equal). A more fair question would be:
"Why does a white/asian guy with a 1250 SAT have a lower future potential than a black/hispanic guy with a 1225 SAT (all else held equal)?"
...which is easier to answer. There is a marked difference in SAT scores among races, and a lot of debate about the cause amongst people who know a lot more about this stuff then myself (and given the wording of your comment, I expect yourself as well). At the very least, it's reasonable to suspect that there may be some racial bias in the wording of SAT questions.
Obviously, the issue of unequal opportunity amongst races is huge and complex, and I don't pretend to know how affective affirmative action is at addressing it. What I do know, though, is that it's not as cut-and-dry as you seem to be implying.
Scroll up. Joebadmo argued in defense of AA "...that college admissions shouldn't be about past performance but about future potential..."
I suspect that that affirmative action is never responsible for a white/asian guy with a 3.5 GPA getting passed over for a black/hispanic guy with a 2.6 (all else equal).
Your suspicion is wrong. This is exactly what U-Mich did. I'd love to provide more data, but colleges hate transparency, and U-Mich is the only college to reveal this (they were obligated due to a supreme court case).
Further, nationwide, in 2006, there were fewer than 976 black students who scored 700 on the math and verbal SAT. Yet somehow, the population of black students at top schools is considerably higher than 976. Make no mistake - AA is a lot bigger than a 25 point boost on SATs.
Even if you assume that the statistical distribution of black GPAs is lower due to culture, it does not logically follow that the black guy has higher potential.