There is a prediction market for the same but for entire 2023 instead of just Jan: https://manifold.markets/LeonardoKroger/will-twitter-file-fo...

I'll take that bet!

What odds you taking? I'll take 1:4 odds of bankruptcy in Jan 2023 up to £500 (e.g. I get £125 if it doesnt go bankrupt then and you get £500 if it does).

Everything is possible with that shitshow, but I doubt it.

But still, this is a very good reminder about using twitter as login somewhere else!

Wouldn't the receiver want to keep the site running to maximise the value when it's chopped up and sold for parts?

Hell yeah! I'm game what $$ will you go up to. I want a free down payment; we can get an escrow setup.

I'll take that bet. How much?

Why would they file for bankruptcy? Are they out of cash next month?

They never had large cash piles to begin with.

And now they’ve been saddled with debt whose interest is equal to about their annual revenues before 50% of their largest advertisers stopped advertising.

And they’ve certainly exposed themselves to massive FCC and EU fines.

I think Jan 2023 is way too early, but Twitter has a lot of financial footguns just waiting to go off.

This user could be easily larping.

If you're offering to bet randos on HN 10k euros, I don't think you are dead serious.

edit: oh god there are two more people doing the "Oh I'll bet! How much?" - I've seen this hundreds of times before. Someone states their honest opinion on here, and a handful of others chime in trying to goad them into staking money on it. When they obviously don't (because why on earth would they?) they get accused of being insincere, not being willing to stake "real" money on it (with perhaps the implication that they're small-fry, and do not have the means to do so unlike the wealthy, high-rolling proposer of the wager), or whatever. It's childish, nobody thinks you're cool and nobody believes you'd actually make a frivolous 10k bet with a pseudonymous person.

I would actually. There are online escrow services for that.

Also I didn't goad anybody into doing anything: they offered to bet and I took the bait (and then edited their post to remove the request for betting). Not the other way around.

If you're not willing to bet, then don't create a post on the internet stating that you're willing to bet? simple.

Eh I didn't see any offer to bet anything, but in any case if someone on HN says "I bet that XXX happens" then it's safe to say they don't mean "I will bet anything that XXX, name your terms and I will match them, otherwise I concede since you have bested me using logic!"

This is not a betting platform and tbh I think dang et al would get in trouble if it turned out HN was facilitating some form of gambling. In reality trying to make someone put money behind their predictions is a way to try to make them back down, look silly/small/cheap and as I said originally, it is childish. Don't do it.