I'd like to believe that superior [solo] programmers will out in the end
I think you're wrong (sorry!) because it's impossible to talk about superior programmers without talking about teams. Building complex systems is a team sport. There's no way around this. But you can't have good teams without good programmers.
The phrase "scaling complexity" has at least two axes built into it: the abstraction axis -- how to get better at telling the program to the computer -- and the collaboration axis -- how to get better at telling the program to each other. Most of this thread has been about whether we suck at the former. But I say we really suck at the latter, and the reason is that we haven't fully assimilated what software is yet. Software doesn't live in the code, it lives in the minds of the people who make it. The code is just a (lossy) written representation.
We can argue about how much more productive the best individual working solo with the best tool can be- but there's no way that that model will scale arbitrarily, no matter how good the individual/tool pairing. At some point the single machine (the solo genius) hits a wall and you have to go to distributed systems (teams). One thing we know from programming is that when you shift to distributed systems, everything changes. I think that's true on the human level as well. (Just to be redundant, by "distribution" here I don't mean distributed teams, I mean knowledge of the program being distributed across multiple brains.)
Maybe you wouldn't have trouble working in teams if we'd actually figured out how to make great teams. So far, it's entirely hit and miss. But I think anyone who's had the good fortune to experience the spontaneous occurrence of a great team knows what a beautiful and powerful thing it is. Most of us who've had that experience go through the rest of our careers craving it again. Indeed, it has converted many a solo type into an ardent collaborator. Like me.
I was originally going to write about this and then decided not to go there, but you forced my hand. :) Just as long as it's clear that when I say "team" I mean nothing like how software organizations are formally built nowadays. It's not about being in an org chart. It's about being in a band.
The phrase "scaling complexity" has at least two axes built into it: the abstraction axis -- how to get better at telling the program to the computer -- and the collaboration axis -- how to get better at telling the program to each other. Most of this thread has been about whether we suck at the former. But I say we really suck at the latter, and the reason is that we haven't fully assimilated what software is yet. Software doesn't live in the code, it lives in the minds of the people who make it. The code is just a (lossy) written representation.
Ah, you're right. I was conflating the two axes.
I'd like to be part of a 'band'. I've had few opportunities, but I've caught the occasional glimpse of how good things can be.
Since that whole aspect is outside my ken, I focus on expression. Hopefully there's no destructive interference. I would argue that what you call abstraction is about 'communication with each other' more than anything (even though it breaks the awesome symmetry of your paragraph above :)
I think you're wrong (sorry!) because it's impossible to talk about superior programmers without talking about teams. Building complex systems is a team sport. There's no way around this. But you can't have good teams without good programmers.
The phrase "scaling complexity" has at least two axes built into it: the abstraction axis -- how to get better at telling the program to the computer -- and the collaboration axis -- how to get better at telling the program to each other. Most of this thread has been about whether we suck at the former. But I say we really suck at the latter, and the reason is that we haven't fully assimilated what software is yet. Software doesn't live in the code, it lives in the minds of the people who make it. The code is just a (lossy) written representation.
We can argue about how much more productive the best individual working solo with the best tool can be- but there's no way that that model will scale arbitrarily, no matter how good the individual/tool pairing. At some point the single machine (the solo genius) hits a wall and you have to go to distributed systems (teams). One thing we know from programming is that when you shift to distributed systems, everything changes. I think that's true on the human level as well. (Just to be redundant, by "distribution" here I don't mean distributed teams, I mean knowledge of the program being distributed across multiple brains.)
Maybe you wouldn't have trouble working in teams if we'd actually figured out how to make great teams. So far, it's entirely hit and miss. But I think anyone who's had the good fortune to experience the spontaneous occurrence of a great team knows what a beautiful and powerful thing it is. Most of us who've had that experience go through the rest of our careers craving it again. Indeed, it has converted many a solo type into an ardent collaborator. Like me.
I was originally going to write about this and then decided not to go there, but you forced my hand. :) Just as long as it's clear that when I say "team" I mean nothing like how software organizations are formally built nowadays. It's not about being in an org chart. It's about being in a band.