The problem isn't whether he will be prosecuted, but for what. His play right now seems to be playing dumb. I don't know if it can work, but he still needs to build a credible alternative story to the criminal behaviour that many here seem to suspect, for the different parties who seem to be happy to keep supporting him.
They will probably start lower down the organization, getting evidence that wrongful behavior was sanctioned by management. Ignorance of the law is not a defence. He will go to jail.
The perils of thinking you're the smartest guy in the room. He apparently didn't even think to set up a victim to take the fall. Retroactively blaming his girlfriend will probably doom her, but isn't doing him any good.
It can't work; there are documents. This stuff is always found in documents. In Madoff's case, aside his confession, they had the original financial documents and the ones manually edited by Madoff which were given to investors. That was sufficient to prove that he knew the truth and was defrauding his investors.
Somewhere in the terabytes of internal emails, screenshots, and discord logs there will be something showing that SBF knew what he was doing, even if it shows up in a completely unforeseen way.
