imho structurally this downturn is much more serious than the dot.com bust. that one was a classic and contained speculative bust in a nascent domain. what we have now is a very different type of challenge. a fully developed tech universe, with demonstrable revenue streams but the sustainability and even legitimacy of those streams being questioned in fundamental ways. this is coupled with an apparent innovation fatigue and alternative growth options like the metaverse feeling completely bonkers.
most importantly, digital tech has become too important: both within countries (democracy, privacy, competition etc) and between countries (security, supply chain political control, trade advantage etc). this does not mean we should expect a wipeout, there is significant inertia in consumer, corporate and government choices, but I would not expect another boom cycle to materialize before global geopolitical stars align towards some sort of consensus of how tech is to be deployed and controlled
“legitimacy of those streams being questioned in fundamental ways”
How?
Meta lost 11 billion building second life, not because they can’t monetize fb/ ig etc.
Twitter fired half its staff because their new god king wanted to run a different company with lower costs and different standards and product direction, not because advertising performance meaningfully changed.
> but I would not expect another boom cycle to materialize before global geopolitical stars align towards some sort of consensus of how tech is to be deployed and controlled
That's a really interesting statement. What do you think that could look like?
the only scenario that can be ruled out is one in which the total addressable market for technology first movers is the entire planet. yet this was the thesis until quite recently :-)
so we are moving from the short lived digital Pangaea (where an advertiser even attempted to issue a global private currency) to a planet segmented into digital continents. How many continents and how connected at the physical and informational layers remains to be seen. Evolution never stops and in silico it works much faster than with organic matter.
most importantly, digital tech has become too important: both within countries (democracy, privacy, competition etc) and between countries (security, supply chain political control, trade advantage etc). this does not mean we should expect a wipeout, there is significant inertia in consumer, corporate and government choices, but I would not expect another boom cycle to materialize before global geopolitical stars align towards some sort of consensus of how tech is to be deployed and controlled