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> But Tesla isn't worth anywhere near it's current market capitalization either.

In what sense?



The Top 10 manufacturers for 2021 were[1]:

1 Toyota Motor Corp 10,495,548 (same) +11.8%

2 Volkswagen Group 8,610,100 (same) -5.5%

3 Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance 7,680,014 (same) -1.3%

4 Hyundai Motor Group 6,667,085 +1 +5.0%

5 Stellantis 6,583,269 +1 +5.2%

6 General Motors 6,291,000 -2 -7.9%

7 Honda 4,121,000 (same) -6.5%

8 Ford Motor Company 3,942,000 (same) -5.9%

9 Suzuki 2,763,000 +1 12.9%

10 BMW 2,521,514 +1 +8.5%

Notice who's not in that list?

Now let's look at market capitalization[2]:

1 TeslaTSLA $568.87 B

2 ToyotaTM $202.86 B

3 PorscheP911.DE $101.44 B

4 BYD002594.SZ $86.39 B

5 VolkswagenVOW3.DE $84.30 B

6 Mercedes-BenzMBG.DE $69.28 B

7 General MotorsGM $57.48 B

8 BMWBMW.DE $57.39 B

9 FordF $56.60 B

10 StellantisSTLA $48.87 B

There is no possible way Tesla is worth more then double what Toyota is, while shipping about 1/10th of the vehicles. The Price-Earnings ratio is 56, vs Toyota's 9.

By every possible metric, it is vastly overvalued compared to it's profitability, and there's no reason on the horizon to think it will suddenly catch up since all those automakers are moving directly into it's space.

[1] https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/who-won-the-automotive...

[2] https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers...


If you want to compare companies by 'how big' they should be, you need to compare enterprise value, not market capitalisation.

If you think Toyota's stock (or bonds etc) will increase in market price relative to Tesla, for a fee financial markets will let you bet on that conviction and make money, if you are right.


It's borderline a meme stock at this point. Tesla is valued as if it will forever be able to sell every car they make, on earnings calls Elon blows off any questions about demand. In the last few months though used car prices for Tesla have plummeted, I think they're finally about to run into demand issues as they get more supply online




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