I would be really interested to hear why you think robotics is easy?
So, most of the robotics we deal with is pretty straightforward, right? For the algorithms, it's motion planning, communication, modeling uncertainty, and so on. For the hardware, it's control theory, light power supplies, strong materials, etc. These are not "hard" problems, they are merely expensive ones. Better technology or more funding will almost certainly solve these issues, and these are the main chunks of robotics research I see today--and that is why I don't consider robotics necessarily "hard". It seems to be straightforward engineering, not science or mathematics.
The Asimo is an excellent piece of engineering, and I would buy a beer for any of its engineers were I to run across them. That said, a lot of the reason it's taken so long is that the supporting tech has had to be worked around. If we had infinitely fast computers, with infinitely fast actuators, running on infinitely long-lived batteries, robotics would be damned easy--don't confuse technological disadvantages with real difficulty.
Humans will find other niches. Taking robotics to the extreme will mean that survival will become extremely cheap if not free since machines will be able to do most if not all for us. It won't matter if you are unemployed since your personal robot is already doing all the work. i.e. Farming, house building, maintenance, clothe manufacturing, cooking. Etc. Etc.
So you see, we may evolve into a society that may not need to work so unemployment is a non issue. The real issue is what will we do with all our free time?
I predict that most of society will still work but only in what interests them, no longer will people need to be stuck in a crappy job longing to work on their dreams. We may enter a true golden age like never seen before.
This is certainly a wonderful dream, but we don't need robots to accomplish it. We already have the technology available to support life cheaply/freely--agricultural output and goods production is more than sufficient to accomplish this, provided policymakers do the right thing. They would need to do the right thing, even with robots. That being the case, it's more profitable to simply skip the robot revolution and focus on the actual policy issues motivating it.
I'm sorry, my friend, but robots are a solution in search of a problem.
(as for the rest of your post, I don't really disagree save for one thing: if we aren't making sentient robots, we're making tools, which require people to run them--why not simply use people?)
>>So, most of the robotics we deal with is pretty straightforward, right? For the algorithms, it's motion planning, communication, modeling uncertainty, and so on. For the hardware, it's control theory, light power supplies, strong materials, etc. These are not "hard" problems, they are merely expensive ones. Better technology or more funding will almost certainly solve these issues, and these are the main chunks of robotics research I see today--and that is why I don't consider robotics necessarily "hard". It seems to be straightforward engineering, not science or mathematics.<<
OK, I see the disconnect now. Agree, the mechanical part is not that hard. I'm talking about the software part. i.e. Building the software that will tell the robot how to walk (over any terrain), process verbal commands (Siri one early example of this), build a house, cook you a meal, etc. That is hard.
What will probably happen is that robots will be built first, and then developers around the world will sell software for your robot so that it can accomplish certain tasks. i.e. Cook you a meal. Build an engine from scratch, etc. Similar to how the computer market developed; some companies will build the hardware, and others will build the software.
>>This is certainly a wonderful dream, but we don't need robots to accomplish it. We already have the technology available to support life cheaply/freely--agricultural output and goods production is more than sufficient to accomplish this, provided policymakers do the right thing<<
That is the rub, you are expecting a policymaker to actually go off and do it.
With Robots, it will just happen naturally over the span of several decades. It will happen slowly but surely and will give our world society time to adjust.
>>if we aren't making sentient robots, we're making tools, which require people to run them--why not simply use people?
Because nobody else will want to work for you anymore since they will have their own robots to meet all their needs. So, like it or not, you will have to use robots. Everybody else will be too busy pursuing their own interests.
I'm talking about the software part. i.e. Building the software that will tell the robot how to walk (over any terrain), process verbal commands (Siri one early example of this), build a house, cook you a meal, etc. That is hard.
Even the software part isn't "hard" theoretically; performing balancing, walking, and such is an engineering challange. With a sufficiently large expert system and data set all problems can likely be solved with a lookup table--again, this is only limited by current technology and processor power. You see this effect when comparing older robots to new ones--people are just finally able to run known algos on hardware they can actually mount on a robot.
I'm still mulling over your other assertions... at any rate, thank you for a good discussion. :)
I'm sorry, my friend, but robots are a solution in search of a problem....why not simply use people?
Let's take a specific example. Washing dishes. Why do most people have dishwashers instead of washing dishes by hand?
Two easy responses are that it's both more convenient and more efficient to have a dishwasher wash the dishes. So you have both a time and resource savings. Sure, a dishwasher might not be humanoid, or even what we think of when we here the term "robot", but it's still a machine performing a function in place of what we would do manually.
With just that as a starting point, you can think up nearly unlimited examples for where this type of automation can improve our lives. Automated cars would be safer (and by extension, you could have things like automated trash pickup and automated street cleaners). How about a bathroom that kept itself clean (runs a regular self-wash cycle)?
So, most of the robotics we deal with is pretty straightforward, right? For the algorithms, it's motion planning, communication, modeling uncertainty, and so on. For the hardware, it's control theory, light power supplies, strong materials, etc. These are not "hard" problems, they are merely expensive ones. Better technology or more funding will almost certainly solve these issues, and these are the main chunks of robotics research I see today--and that is why I don't consider robotics necessarily "hard". It seems to be straightforward engineering, not science or mathematics.
The Asimo is an excellent piece of engineering, and I would buy a beer for any of its engineers were I to run across them. That said, a lot of the reason it's taken so long is that the supporting tech has had to be worked around. If we had infinitely fast computers, with infinitely fast actuators, running on infinitely long-lived batteries, robotics would be damned easy--don't confuse technological disadvantages with real difficulty.
Humans will find other niches. Taking robotics to the extreme will mean that survival will become extremely cheap if not free since machines will be able to do most if not all for us. It won't matter if you are unemployed since your personal robot is already doing all the work. i.e. Farming, house building, maintenance, clothe manufacturing, cooking. Etc. Etc.
So you see, we may evolve into a society that may not need to work so unemployment is a non issue. The real issue is what will we do with all our free time?
I predict that most of society will still work but only in what interests them, no longer will people need to be stuck in a crappy job longing to work on their dreams. We may enter a true golden age like never seen before.
This is certainly a wonderful dream, but we don't need robots to accomplish it. We already have the technology available to support life cheaply/freely--agricultural output and goods production is more than sufficient to accomplish this, provided policymakers do the right thing. They would need to do the right thing, even with robots. That being the case, it's more profitable to simply skip the robot revolution and focus on the actual policy issues motivating it.
I'm sorry, my friend, but robots are a solution in search of a problem.
(as for the rest of your post, I don't really disagree save for one thing: if we aren't making sentient robots, we're making tools, which require people to run them--why not simply use people?)