> but politically it seems impossible given that most international bodies think that the real problem in Brazil is deforestation and that somehow promoting agriculture in Brazil is going to cause deforestation despite the fact that the Ethanol industry is mostly around São Paulo and nowhere near the rainforest.
It's not like Bolsonaro's term hasn't proven that deforestation is a massive problem. No one is trusting Brazil on a geopolitical stage at all, particularly as it looks like Lula is heading off in a lame-duck term against parliament and regional governors being dominated by Bolsonaro allies, who are bought off by Big Ag.
agriculture has been the most contentious issue in world trade and it is the reason why the World Trade Organization has been deadlocked since 1999. A while back Brazil asked the question: "What industries can we lead the world in?" and one of the answers was meatpacking so they got behind
That is, JBS is to Brazil what Boeing or Apple Computer are to the US and it is by no means anomalous that it has a great deal of political influence.
When we tell them what to do with their land they react the same way we'd react if they said "It's unfair that we have to pay royalties for software like Microsoft Windows and Hollywood Movies, not to mention GMO seeds".
Most of the people in the US I talk to who rightly want to see a stop to deforestation in the Amazon are ignorant about agriculture in Brazil (e.g. they think that JBS is backwards, not the fiercely competitive corporation it is) and ignorant about agriculture in general and not particularly understanding of the process by which deforestation happens in Brazil.
It doesn't help that many questions are not well understood such as the relationship between land use in the area south of the Amazon and local climate changes that could cause the rainforest to recess northward.
There could be some compromise but so long as developed country NGOs are speaking to Brazilians in a patronizing way it isn't going to happen.
It's not like Bolsonaro's term hasn't proven that deforestation is a massive problem. No one is trusting Brazil on a geopolitical stage at all, particularly as it looks like Lula is heading off in a lame-duck term against parliament and regional governors being dominated by Bolsonaro allies, who are bought off by Big Ag.