I'll believe there might be a talent shortage just as soon as one single person, who is not a colleague with whom I have a close personal rapport, approaches me either directly or through my network with an opportunity. That's what I'd expect to see, even if only occasionally, if there was really a shortage. As it stands, it looks much more like accepted hiring / job seeking practices are just grossly inefficient at matching up talent with opportunities. That's inconvenient, for both sides, but it's not the same thing as a shortage.