Why has UK politics become so unstable? Brexit is relevant, yet occurred in a system which was experiencing deeper problems of instability. Two factors, changing patterns of class support and declining partisan identification, underpin recent instability.
Patterns of class support have changed quickly, disrupting complementary relationships between parties and wider institutions. Parties misread the preferences of new supporters and unrepresentative governance practices compound this, the election of Liz Truss being an example.
Partisan identification has declined. Most notably, this has made Conservative polling vulnerable to sudden shocks. If the Conservatives enjoyed historic levels of partisan support, Johnson and Truss would probably have survived crises.
Brexit would probably not have been so destabilizing had these conditions been absent; it may not have happened at all! Yet Brexit has interacted with deeper pressures for instability, making the UK one of the most unstable countries in the West.
Patterns of class support have changed quickly, disrupting complementary relationships between parties and wider institutions. Parties misread the preferences of new supporters and unrepresentative governance practices compound this, the election of Liz Truss being an example.
Partisan identification has declined. Most notably, this has made Conservative polling vulnerable to sudden shocks. If the Conservatives enjoyed historic levels of partisan support, Johnson and Truss would probably have survived crises.
Brexit would probably not have been so destabilizing had these conditions been absent; it may not have happened at all! Yet Brexit has interacted with deeper pressures for instability, making the UK one of the most unstable countries in the West.