No, it doesn't make sense, because it doesn't apply here. We aren't estimating the count of anything. We know he has two kids, we know there are two genders, and we know there are seven days. All other relevant counts can be calculated directly from these, no estimation required.
I already showed the probability that we would receive the message the way we did, assuming we're sampling fathers with two children, and its pretty low. If we drop the sampling assumption, it would go even lower. But that's irrelevant to the actual question, because we've already won that lottery. I've also shown the probability that we would get the statement we got given that the father had at least one son born on a Tuesday, but again, we already won that lottery.
If you still insist, can you please stop talking in hand-wavy fake math and show some actual concrete numbers? To start, if each of the 27 possibilities are not equally likely, what are the actual probabilities and why?
I already showed the probability that we would receive the message the way we did, assuming we're sampling fathers with two children, and its pretty low. If we drop the sampling assumption, it would go even lower. But that's irrelevant to the actual question, because we've already won that lottery. I've also shown the probability that we would get the statement we got given that the father had at least one son born on a Tuesday, but again, we already won that lottery.
If you still insist, can you please stop talking in hand-wavy fake math and show some actual concrete numbers? To start, if each of the 27 possibilities are not equally likely, what are the actual probabilities and why?