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It's not a matter or probability. It's a matter of value.

How much should you value untested plans? You should value them as worthless.




In case of catastrophic failure, would you rather have untested backups or no backups to work with? If you have even a slight preference for the former (I actually have a rather large preference for it), the untested stuff apparently has some value to you.

But of course, testing creates more value.




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