I live in Tokyo and know the author, and have had many conversations/discussions with him and other foreigners here. We disagree a bunch of times! But we do agree it's an interesting topic. IMHO it all boils down to:
- Tech pays disproportionately high in Tokyo so yes, it's "affordable" for us.
- If you come from anglo-saxon countries mainly (USA, London, AUS/NZ), Tokyo will seem dirt cheap.
- If you come from cheaper countries like me from Spain, Tokyo will seem alright, not too cheap not too expensive.
- Definitely doesn't seem "one of the most expensive cities in the world" as many people say, and I think that's the key to understand the whole article/author point of view.
The issue is IMHO that Japan, Spain and USA are used to very different standards of living in many regards, so it's just impossible for a straight comparison (the markets I know best). For example, in Japan people are used to 1h+ daily train commute, readers here from the USA are likely used to 1h+ daily car commute, and I'm used to walk across my home city in ~30 min. This makes me prioritize a walking neighborhood near my job (I can walk there in ~40 min in Tokyo), but that means I had to choose either crazy expensive or tiny appt.
Same for house sizes, Japan is a lot smaller but smart about it, (like in boats where every small crevice is taken advantage of), while in Spain it's usual to have a guest/secondary room, and in the USA within that driving time people might even have a whole "laundry room".
Another bit of cultural difference is seen in "America’s largest city, New York started construction on just under 30,000 new housing units in 2020 while Tokyo started constructing 130,000 units."; while it's probably true that the USA needs to build more, Japan sins on the opposite end of the spectrum where they build very cheap and demolish it after 20-40 years. I'd like to see a rate of "housing built vs demolished" to present these numbers as a net positive difference.
>Japan sins on the opposite end of the spectrum where they build very cheap and demolish it after 20-40 years. I'd like to see a rate of "housing built vs demolished" to present these numbers as a net positive difference.
There's a good reason for that: in Japanese experience, older houses = more likely to collapse in an earthquake. Who wants to take that risk? Also, building "very cheap" is part of why housing is more affordable here; instead of prioritizing "character", they prioritize efficiency, safety, and affordability, and striking a balance between those. So if you go looking at buildings constructed within the same timeframe, they tend to all look alike inside, using the same construction materials.
You have a point with net change being overlooked though. I have observed here that it's very common to demolish older multi-unit buildings and replace them with taller ones, so there is a net gain, but not as much as you'd think by ignoring the number of units demolished.
>The issue is IMHO that Japan, Spain and USA are used to very different standards of living in many regards, so it's just impossible for a straight comparison
This is exactly right. I find it really frustrating to try to talk about this stuff with Americans because they simply cannot comprehend a comparison based on anything besides $/square foot. So I try to put it in terms of "how much does rent cost for the average person", and some people will get it then, but not many.
>- Tech pays disproportionately high in Tokyo so yes, it's "affordable" for us.
It does pay higher than typical local salaries, but compared to American salaries for similar jobs it's a fraction as much (esp. with the current lousy exchange rate), so it's not as "affordable" as it might seem to someone making an American tech salary. Still quite comfortable in local terms though.
"Who wants to take that risk?" I do, Japanese society in general is ridiculously risk-averse, and IMHO this is the perfect example. You take risks everyday you don't even know/think off, which are likely multiple orders of magnitude higher than you dying on an earthquake even if you are in the riskiest position. E.g. in the worst earthquake last few decades (2011) and only ~600 (4% of deaths) people died because of the earthquake itself. Even if that happened every year, it wouldn't be in the top 10 causes of death, probably not even top 100 (Japan has 1.2 million deaths/year).
If you are even slightly conscious/purposeful about this, you can do a thousand things with the money you save NOT rebuilding a house in Japan to lenghten your life that are a lot more effective.
About cost, I don't know enough about architecture to tell about earthquakes, but in non-earthquake areas a house built costing 2x as another one (everything else being equal and focusing the extra cost on quality/durability) will go from lasting X years to basically forever, or at least a much much larger timeframe than 2X.
Assuming earthquake are similar (I suspect not), cost should definitely be worse if you have to rebuild every 20-40 years than if multiple generations lived in the same house!
IMHO in Spain (low geo mobility, long-time housing duration) that's a big deal and basically why, while it is a "salary poor" country, people have relatively good lives. That's why most people also go somewhere else for summer holidays, either a family second house, a friends house, etc.
>E.g. in the worst earthquake last few decades (2011) and only ~600 (4% of deaths) people died because of the earthquake itself.
"Only" 600 people died because buildings were constructed to withstand earthquakes. Contrast that with other countries where buildings are not well-constructed, and an earthquake kills tens of thousands.
According to you, buildings should NOT be made to withstand earthquakes, and should instead be preserved because they're old, and then when the whole city collapses due to an earthquake, killing hundreds of thousands, you'll just wring your hands about the poor old buildings lost.
The fact is that engineering gets better over time as architects and structural engineers learn better how to design buildings to handle earthquakes while also being attractive, comfortable, energy-efficient, etc. You can't do that with old buildings; retrofitting an old building to improve its performance in these ways (even if it's possible) will always be MUCH more expensive than just tearing down the building and erecting a new one, just like trying to retrofit a 60s Mustang to perform like a new one will cost millions. There's a reason housing costs in Japan aren't high compared to, e.g. America, and keeping unsafe, ancient buildings around long past their good-by date isn't one of them.
The downside of this is that preserving 'heritage' architecture is a potent form of NIMBYism. It has reached ridiculous proportions in Australia, where ugly (but solid) architecture from 40 years ago needs to be preserved at all costs.
We would all like to live in Venice of course, but when the population of your city is growing fast, this kind of thing is a big problem.
- Tech pays disproportionately high in Tokyo so yes, it's "affordable" for us.
- If you come from anglo-saxon countries mainly (USA, London, AUS/NZ), Tokyo will seem dirt cheap.
- If you come from cheaper countries like me from Spain, Tokyo will seem alright, not too cheap not too expensive.
- Definitely doesn't seem "one of the most expensive cities in the world" as many people say, and I think that's the key to understand the whole article/author point of view.
The issue is IMHO that Japan, Spain and USA are used to very different standards of living in many regards, so it's just impossible for a straight comparison (the markets I know best). For example, in Japan people are used to 1h+ daily train commute, readers here from the USA are likely used to 1h+ daily car commute, and I'm used to walk across my home city in ~30 min. This makes me prioritize a walking neighborhood near my job (I can walk there in ~40 min in Tokyo), but that means I had to choose either crazy expensive or tiny appt.
Same for house sizes, Japan is a lot smaller but smart about it, (like in boats where every small crevice is taken advantage of), while in Spain it's usual to have a guest/secondary room, and in the USA within that driving time people might even have a whole "laundry room".
Another bit of cultural difference is seen in "America’s largest city, New York started construction on just under 30,000 new housing units in 2020 while Tokyo started constructing 130,000 units."; while it's probably true that the USA needs to build more, Japan sins on the opposite end of the spectrum where they build very cheap and demolish it after 20-40 years. I'd like to see a rate of "housing built vs demolished" to present these numbers as a net positive difference.