Partially this is confusing "Scott Alexander won a bet" with "compositionality is solved." And also, I'm not sure Scott won the bet? Changing people to robots is a cheap trick. I think Imagen should have been disqualified because it won't do people.
Vitor took the other side of the bet and he is also not convinced [1]:
> I'm not conceding just yet, even though it feels like I'm just dragging out the inevitable for a few months. Maybe we should agree on a new set of prompts to get around the robot issue.
> In retrospect, I think that your side of the bet is too lenient in only requiring one of the images to fulfill the prompt. I'm happy to leave that part standing as-is, of course, though I've learned the lesson to be more careful about operationalization. Overall, these images shift my priors a fair amount, but aren't enough to change my fundamental view.
Scott putting "I Won" in the headline when it's not resolved yet seems somewhat dishonest, or more charitably wishful thinking.
Humans are much more discerning when it comes to people than other things. I have no idea what imagen's capabilities are, but it seems at least plausible it could have different results for drawing humans.
This is Google, and I say this out of familiarity with the recent history of AI, not to stir up culture war: it's because they've painted themselves into a corner on "what is the skin color of a person+role" and won't publish until it looks like a Benetton ad.
Vitor took the other side of the bet and he is also not convinced [1]:
> I'm not conceding just yet, even though it feels like I'm just dragging out the inevitable for a few months. Maybe we should agree on a new set of prompts to get around the robot issue.
> In retrospect, I think that your side of the bet is too lenient in only requiring one of the images to fulfill the prompt. I'm happy to leave that part standing as-is, of course, though I've learned the lesson to be more careful about operationalization. Overall, these images shift my priors a fair amount, but aren't enough to change my fundamental view.
Scott putting "I Won" in the headline when it's not resolved yet seems somewhat dishonest, or more charitably wishful thinking.
[1] https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/i-won-my-three-year-ai...