This book came highly recommended by several people. I am only about 20% through it, but so far I have found it very underwhelming and full of unsupported claims.
The author keeps insisting that the "end is coming", but the only arguments given in support of this are the demographic collapse and the US withdraw from the world Order leading to de-globalization.
The demographic collapse is real, however it has been known for decades and many countries are taking real steps to mitigate it in the form of strong government support for raising children (netherlands for example) or looser restrictions to immigration. There is also no mention in this book that better standards of living and the shift away from manual labor are enabling many people to continue to be productive well into their retirement years.
The argument for the US withdraw from the world Order is even more puzzling as it flies in the face of all the events of 2022 which has seen the US reinforce its alliances and increase its participation in the world stage.
In my view, the argument is a reaction to the Trump presidency, but I believe the Trump presidency is an aberration and not a trend for the future of US foreign policy.
The US will always promote peace and world order, because ultimately peace is far more profitable than war.
Just my impressions so far. I'll keep reading it in the hope that it gets better.
Imho his latest book isn't the best starting point. He justifies his basic thesis more in earlier books, but in the latest he just reviews it and moves on to new material. The argument is not just a reaction to Trump; he lays it out first in The Accidental Superpower, published in 2014. (This book is fascinating in its own right, covering a broad sweep of history starting from ancient Egypt.)
Zeihan's predictions don't extend much past the next decade. Governments can enact policies to encourage childbearing but it will still take 20 years to make a 20-year-old. Immigration is another matter of course, but for many countries, cultural issues make that difficult. The US does a pretty good job of assimilating immigrants and giving them a fairly equal place in society. Many other countries do not, and that makes them less attractive to immigrants.
Internationally, the US has definitely stepped up more this year. But during and shortly after the Cold War, the US fought serious wars to defend the borders of other countries, maintaining our credibility as global security guarantor. I don't think we're near so dedicated to that these days. We'll sanction, and share weapons and intel, but that's relatively cheap.
The author keeps insisting that the "end is coming", but the only arguments given in support of this are the demographic collapse and the US withdraw from the world Order leading to de-globalization.
The demographic collapse is real, however it has been known for decades and many countries are taking real steps to mitigate it in the form of strong government support for raising children (netherlands for example) or looser restrictions to immigration. There is also no mention in this book that better standards of living and the shift away from manual labor are enabling many people to continue to be productive well into their retirement years.
The argument for the US withdraw from the world Order is even more puzzling as it flies in the face of all the events of 2022 which has seen the US reinforce its alliances and increase its participation in the world stage. In my view, the argument is a reaction to the Trump presidency, but I believe the Trump presidency is an aberration and not a trend for the future of US foreign policy. The US will always promote peace and world order, because ultimately peace is far more profitable than war.
Just my impressions so far. I'll keep reading it in the hope that it gets better.