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OSAC issued a warning in 2012, suggesting ~30k cases a year.

From Wikipedia:

> Between 1998 and 2004, 13% of emergency-room admissions for "poisoning with criminal intentions" in a clinic of Bogotá, Colombia, have been attributed to scopolamine, and 44% to benzodiazepines.[39] Most commonly, the person has been poisoned by a robber who gave the victim a scopolamine-laced beverage, in the hope that the victim would become unconscious or unable to effectively resist the robbery.[39]



RESULTS: 860 clinical files were reviewed. We found a greater frequency of this intoxication in young people and male gender. The main cause was robbery.

860 clinical files reviewed. 806.13/(2004-1998)=~18 cases annually of emergency-room admissions from "poisoning with criminal intention with scopolamine for one clinic.

Now these are beverages not business cards and the number appears to be trivially small. But it's only one clinic, how many clinics are there in Bogotá and more importantly, what is their annual case load?

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12245-015-0079-y "Seventy EDs participated (82 % response). Most EDs (87 %) were located in hospitals, and 83 % were independent hospital departments. The median annual ED visit volume was approximately 50,000 visits."

Okay, 18 annual cases per clinic. On any given night a clinic might have 18/50000 = 3.6E-4 cases of scopolamine-laced beverage poisoning.

seventy EDs participated (82 % response) 70/.82=~86 clinics in Bogotá... 863.6E-4=3.10E-02 cases a nightly.

I know my analysis is a bit rough, but I really am not worried about this happening should I visit Bogotá, Colombia. I'm not going to go out drinking alone by any means, but have some common sense this is not a frequent occurrence.


writing off real dangers based on scientific journals....and you've never even travelled there....this take some special type of hubris.




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