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Encouraging trends:

- Energy is getting fixed. Simply because wind and solar are cheap, and electric vehicles work well. There will be lots of kicking and screaming during the transition, but 20 years out, it won't be a problem.

- We seem to be past peak crazyness in major national leaders. Donald Trump is out. Boris Johnson is out. Benjamin Netanyahu is out. Putin remains a problem.

- Vaccine technology has made huge strides in recent years. Omicron vaccine ships in October. Broad-spectrum vaccines for most of the flu/coronavirus family are in test. We have a monkeypox vaccine already. Cranking out a designed vaccine for a new threat is now routine. Even an AIDS vaccine, which is really hard, now looks possible.

- The supply chain disruptions of the last few years have led to major investments in new manufacturing capacity all over the world. From wafer fabs to fertilizer factories, plants are going up. Having multiple sources is now important again. It takes a while for this to have an effect, after which prices go down.

- The population bomb fizzled out. World population is leveling off. All the major developed countries are now below replacement rate.




>- We seem to be past peak crazyness in major national leaders. Donald Trump is out. Boris Johnson is out. Benjamin Netanyahu is out. Putin remains a problem.

Not to throw cold water over this too much but Johnson's likely successor is basically him again but without any of the charisma that sold many of the public on him in the first place. Liz Truss is an author of Britannia Unchained which pretty much accuses the British public of being workshy good-for-nothings and bemoans the fact they won't cheerfully volunteer for long hours and exploitative wages. The irony is by Dominic Cummings' account at least Truss is a bit of a chocolate teapot herself! It's said that history repeats itself first as tragedy then as farce, I think Margaret Thatcher might be about to get her farcical repetition in a month or so.


That's still progress. A crazy leader with charisma is much more dangerous than the same amount of crazy without charisma.




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