EVs aren't going to be popular because they are the solution to climate change. The better solution to climate change is sustainable city planning and development that minimizes energy use for transportation needs, emphasizing walking, bicycles, and rail travel.
EVs are going to take over no matter what because in their end state they're better than ICE vehicles in nearly every way. Quieter, smoother, simpler, faster, cleaner (air pollution), and potentially cheaper.
That said, I absolutely disagree with the amount of shade you're throwing at the technology in the context of climate, emissions, and fuel:
> we need 30% more grid capacity
That's not very hard, especially since EVs are being phased in gradually. We had the same problem with air conditioners and it was no big deal.
> an insanely higher number of chargers
Which will happen because there is a clear financial incentive to build them. They're cheaper to run and maintain than gas stations and the fuel is transported much more easily.
> service companies
Are service companies a finite resource?
> land
What land do you mean? Car-based infrastructure already uses and has a bunch of land. Where is it that EVs need more of it?
> China still controls most of the resources for production
We already have this situation with the Middle East/Russia with oil
Here's the biggest issue I have with your comment: you're minimizing massive reduction in oil usage:
> and only 8 million barrels of crude will be displaced by the estimated number of new EVs
That's a lot! Globally, 43.7 million barrels of oil are used per day for transportation fuel. [1]
That means that EVs will reduce crude oil usage for transportation by 18.3%! That's really significant!
We need to reduce global emissions by 55 percent by 2030 to avoid catastrophe. But even if every single (inc. trucks) vehicle were electrified, it would at max reduce emissions by 20 percent. At the current estimates for 2045 it's going to be like 5-10% reduced emissions, well after we go above 2 degrees temp increase over a decade before.
While we can cheer for EVs reducing emissions, it will do nothing to stop the actual problem with climate change, which is global catastrophe from runaway warming. Add to that the problems we are setting ourselves up for with failure to properly handle the coming EVs and the picture looks grim.
What proposed alternative reduces vehicular emissions by more than switching to EVs?
As I mentioned, I'm all for the reduction of automobile usage as a generality, but that's not as low-friction as a transition to EVs.
We can lament our situation all we want, EVs are what they are. I am not saying they're a full climate solution.
Automakers are switching over them purely as a product decision, with relatively little government regulation pushing them in that direction. (Any regulatory bans on ICE vehicles were easily enacted without industry protest because automakers already know that ICE vehicles will not be competitive products by 2030)
From what I understand, it involves replacing nearly every local distribution station in existence, because nobody prepared for this.
When I had my charger installed, my electrician mentioned that I was at capacity for the service line. To upgrade it, I would have to pay to have the sidewalk and road dug up and repaired, for a couple of city blocks.
I don't think "not very hard" is the appropriate framing.
EVs are going to take over no matter what because in their end state they're better than ICE vehicles in nearly every way. Quieter, smoother, simpler, faster, cleaner (air pollution), and potentially cheaper.
That said, I absolutely disagree with the amount of shade you're throwing at the technology in the context of climate, emissions, and fuel:
> we need 30% more grid capacity
That's not very hard, especially since EVs are being phased in gradually. We had the same problem with air conditioners and it was no big deal.
> an insanely higher number of chargers
Which will happen because there is a clear financial incentive to build them. They're cheaper to run and maintain than gas stations and the fuel is transported much more easily.
> service companies
Are service companies a finite resource?
> land
What land do you mean? Car-based infrastructure already uses and has a bunch of land. Where is it that EVs need more of it?
> China still controls most of the resources for production
We already have this situation with the Middle East/Russia with oil
Here's the biggest issue I have with your comment: you're minimizing massive reduction in oil usage:
> and only 8 million barrels of crude will be displaced by the estimated number of new EVs
That's a lot! Globally, 43.7 million barrels of oil are used per day for transportation fuel. [1]
That means that EVs will reduce crude oil usage for transportation by 18.3%! That's really significant!