However, proper reasoning while taking into account uncertainty is not so simple.
Let's do a thought experiment. Let's say you are the CEO and your estimate for the necessary layoff ranges between 2% and 11%. What to do? One and only one round of X% layoffs? What should X be? Or perhaps start with a round of 5% layoffs. The hope would be that the uncertainty decreases. Time passes. You might not need an additional round. Or if you do, it can be done more accurately.
You get very little from your employees in the meantime, the ones you are still paying, as they have a much harder time concentrating, and also don't know that they have any reason to care about the company's future. The first week or two after a layoff is very glum and unproductive.
If you combine layoffs the reduction in burn can be pretty significant. The exact numbers vary per company but for a startup delaying layoffs by one month can be the difference between having one year of runway remaining or one month once all is said and done.
Combined that’s a 30% headcount reduction since Q1-2022