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Right ... I disagree with the author. I presume that's why I'm getting down voted here.

Proper long term planning EXPLICITLY includes:

Risk Planning for "1. Nothing will go wrong"

Provisions for Product marketing/Spikes/UX Design to address that fact that "2. Product developers [DON'T] know precisely what they must build"

Padding and provisions in estimation errors to address "3. Product developers know exactly how long each task is going to take"

It's like Long Term Planning 101 to address these things.



Can you give us some context or background of the field you’re in? Things differ quite a bit between a mobile app vs shipyard crane controller software.

The point is that even “proper” long term planning doesn’t work for the former. You never have enough information for the plans to actually materialize, it’s not simply the planners fault.


Well ... in my 30+ years I've done medical (imaging and diagnostics where design controls and planning are required by regulation), enterprise firewalls/anti-spam/anti-virus (again, design and planning critical), more than a few mobile apps, SaaS, VR. So pretty much the gamut.

Long term planning "works" everywhere ... you just have different plans: sometimes less detail on the 3-12 month items, sometimes you need a detailed plan out for a full year or more.




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