IIRC the Color runs 2.2; so I'd expect at least that. Odds are it'll be 2.3; they've had the time to work with it. Even Google's "core partners" (Moto, HTC) are claiming 2012 for ICS updates for their handsets, and they're probably getting advance access vs. B&N.
"They've had the time to work with it" doesn't register. Amazon has been a software company from its inception and has had a substantial team of talented devs working on the kindle and kindle fire projects. B&N has never been a software company, it's a functionality they've bolted on to their company lately, and we have yet to see how good that team actually is.