I have just finished reading "the end of the world is just the beginning" by Peter Zeihan, which was released just as Russia invaded Ukraine.
In it, the author argues that the end of global trade and energy has arrived, and that the endless economical growth of the past ~ 70 years will never return.
It's scary how much the war in Ukraine seems to be triggering exactly those phenomena the book talks about. Energy crisis, food crisis, economical downturns.
Observing how the world changes with this war (and also how covid completely fucked our globalized supply chain) it's clear to me how brittle globalization and capitalism actually is.
I don't know that book, but an argumentation of "xxx will never return" about something fundamental like trade doesn't sound very solid. Yes, recent events have put a huge dent into human progress as developing a truely global population. Some parts of globalization have been too naive, as already shown due to the pandemic or a single ship getting stuck in the suez canal. You cannot always expect long range trade to work with minutes. On the other side, high tech, especially microelectronics, can really only work on a global scale.
And I am meeting more Russian colleagues than ever in the office, so I do not think that there is less desire by the peoples to work together and trade and travel. It is single heads of state which are disrupting the global community and trade, even if it is to the clear detriment to them and their population.
So yes, I am worried quite a bit about them succeeding and in consequence setting back humanity, but I remain fundamentally optimistic, that common sense prevails.
it's useful that he bases his analyses on demographic trends , but linearly extrapolating into the future is not a good way to predict. People are adaptable , and nonlinear. The current year is already interesting and i believe no-one will foresee the adaptations of the next 10 years
> Observing how the world changes with this war (and also how covid completely fucked our globalized supply chain) it's clear to me how brittle globalization and capitalism actually is.
That's interesting, because I had the opposite impression. In the midst of a very complex situation, with a significant percentage of the world literally frozen in place, not only did we not experience famine but also managed to create economic growth. The book you describe could have (and has been) written any time in the past 100 years and still sound true, while being ridiculously inaccurate.
If I could own a copy of every book that has predicted the end of capitalism in the last 150 years I could sell them all as fuel and end the energy crisis.
In it, the author argues that the end of global trade and energy has arrived, and that the endless economical growth of the past ~ 70 years will never return.
It's scary how much the war in Ukraine seems to be triggering exactly those phenomena the book talks about. Energy crisis, food crisis, economical downturns.
Observing how the world changes with this war (and also how covid completely fucked our globalized supply chain) it's clear to me how brittle globalization and capitalism actually is.
The coming 10-20 years will be hella interesting.