Venture Capitalism is called "Venture" for a reason. It is a high risk, high reward activity.
But I won't call it predictable. It is only predictable after the fact. Things that were extremely useful for society were extremely bad investments,short term, like the Gutenberg press(Gutenberg went bankrupt), the Columbus expeditions, the first aeroplanes(most early aviators died or had brain contusions for life),the Apollo landings.
Today, for example, the return on all investments in nuclear fusion has been negative. In fact I have invested lots of money on a nuclear fusion startup that had made lots of progress recently. I believe that even if I loose all my invested money, it is worth it.
We had recently a bubble of malinvestments but it has way more to do with States having access to the money printing press than about companies itself. That correlation is total, 100%. With 0% interest rates that you can pay with debt it makes sense to "invest" in 20 projects expecting one of them to be the Unicorn that explodes.
Venture Capitalism is called "Venture" for a reason. It is a high risk, high reward activity.
But I won't call it predictable. It is only predictable after the fact. Things that were extremely useful for society were extremely bad investments,short term, like the Gutenberg press(Gutenberg went bankrupt), the Columbus expeditions, the first aeroplanes(most early aviators died or had brain contusions for life),the Apollo landings.
Today, for example, the return on all investments in nuclear fusion has been negative. In fact I have invested lots of money on a nuclear fusion startup that had made lots of progress recently. I believe that even if I loose all my invested money, it is worth it.
We had recently a bubble of malinvestments but it has way more to do with States having access to the money printing press than about companies itself. That correlation is total, 100%. With 0% interest rates that you can pay with debt it makes sense to "invest" in 20 projects expecting one of them to be the Unicorn that explodes.