Except they repeatedly said they're just above cut-even on the iOS AppStore. It's strongly doubtful that they'd do something like that purely for financial reasons.
I don't think they are that dumb, of course they know they would lose customers like us.
Indeed! Look at a novice Mac user, and you understand why Apple built the MAS. No matter how easy software installation was, the process was still difficult for most users (how to handle a bundle, package, zip file). The MAS has streamlined both installation and paying for an application.
Also, it's what people who bought a Mac because of the iPhone/iPad halo effect expect.
I don't think they are that dumb, of course they know they would lose customers like us.