My reasoning: if they raised in the last 6 months, they should be good to go for the next 18-24 months, which is hopefully enough to get through the storm.
I didn't consider RSUs or the possibility of a down round (but frankly, everyone who raised in the last 2 years has that, to your point). I'm cynical enough that I typically value options or RSUs of private companies close to $0 ("whee, a lottery ticket!"). Now, stock grants of public companies are a different situation.
> My interpretation is companies that raised 18-24 months ago and are still hiring now would show stronger signals
That's a good point. Sure, and stronger yet would be startups that are profitable or cash flow positive (or could be by flipping a few switches). The problem is that knowing from the outside if a company is profitable is as difficult as knowing if someone is going to hit the brakes on hiring in the next few months.
I didn't consider RSUs or the possibility of a down round (but frankly, everyone who raised in the last 2 years has that, to your point). I'm cynical enough that I typically value options or RSUs of private companies close to $0 ("whee, a lottery ticket!"). Now, stock grants of public companies are a different situation.
> My interpretation is companies that raised 18-24 months ago and are still hiring now would show stronger signals
That's a good point. Sure, and stronger yet would be startups that are profitable or cash flow positive (or could be by flipping a few switches). The problem is that knowing from the outside if a company is profitable is as difficult as knowing if someone is going to hit the brakes on hiring in the next few months.