1. Anyone holding Tether tries to cash out. Whales and important customers are allowed to redeem USDT for USD at a 1:1 ratio. Tether sells its crypto and other assets to cover redemptions, driving down the price of those assets.
2. Eventually Tether limits the withdrawals.
3. You're stuck with Tether you can't withdraw. What do you do? Try to exchange it for BTC or ETH ("blue-chip" crypto), which you can then hold or cash out on an exchange that is USD- or USDC-denominated.
4. Any exchange with Tether-denominated crypto prices are going to see those prices EXPLODE as there will be no sellers of the crypto. So you'll see some sort of weird market where BTC on Bitfinex costs $500k but BTC on Coinbase costs $10k.
5. If you're still stuck with Tether, you lose all your money or everything gets tied up in court a la Mt. Gox.
EDIT:
Fun potential #6 - if you're holding crypto on an exchange with Tether exposure, they may not allow withdrawals. The holder of the private keys may seize your assets to cover their debts.
You say the price will explode. But is that explosion just the relative price of bitcoin and tether? Tether is dropping to 0 and so bitcoin price "explodes" because you are still comparing it to tether.
Correct. Price of BTC denominated in Tether goes up, price of BTC denominated in USD likely goes down, as a) Tether liquidates crypto assets to cover redemptions and b) people sell off their crypto assets due to uncertainty/fear in the market.
1. Anyone holding Tether tries to cash out. Whales and important customers are allowed to redeem USDT for USD at a 1:1 ratio. Tether sells its crypto and other assets to cover redemptions, driving down the price of those assets.
2. Eventually Tether limits the withdrawals.
3. You're stuck with Tether you can't withdraw. What do you do? Try to exchange it for BTC or ETH ("blue-chip" crypto), which you can then hold or cash out on an exchange that is USD- or USDC-denominated.
4. Any exchange with Tether-denominated crypto prices are going to see those prices EXPLODE as there will be no sellers of the crypto. So you'll see some sort of weird market where BTC on Bitfinex costs $500k but BTC on Coinbase costs $10k.
5. If you're still stuck with Tether, you lose all your money or everything gets tied up in court a la Mt. Gox.
EDIT:
Fun potential #6 - if you're holding crypto on an exchange with Tether exposure, they may not allow withdrawals. The holder of the private keys may seize your assets to cover their debts.
Not sure how likely this scenario is, but even Coinbase (about as regulated as it gets in crypto) recently admitted that its bankruptcy could wipe out user funds: https://fortune.com/2022/05/11/coinbase-bankruptcy-crypto-as...