I was at a startup during the .com bust. I survived 3 rounds of layoffs over the space of ~18 months. I like everyone remaining at the company, could see the writing on the wall and I was spamming resume's to anyone who looked like they were hiring. Zero responses, pretty much no one was hiring except when it was an emergency. The big/profitable companies were bolting down the hatches, and everyone else was cutting to stay afloat.
I was genuinely scared when my time came, and it took another 4 months, but I consider myself lucky but am uncomfortable with the fact that a previous manager of mine at one of those large/profitable companies which had one of those fishing job postings, saw my resume and swapped me for one of his under performers (aka someone got laid off at the end of the fiscal year, and I got hired). And I took a ~40% pay cut for the privilege.
Literally the only people who were getting hired in my area where situations like that. Never assume you will get hired during a downturn unless you have a really solid network of people who will risk their own positions for you and/or work at companies that treat people like cogs to be replaced if they can get a cheaper/more effective cog.
I was at another stable but small company during the 2008 downturn, and I sadly had to turn away a lot of people I would have loved to work with again, but we were on a hard hiring freeze (the ones where upper mgmt breaths a sigh every-time someone leaves of their own volition because it gives them a bit more breathing room). So these times hurt no matter which end of the table your on.
So, don't assume the job market will remain the way it is today.
Which raises the question of when to jump ship, doesn't it? If your current employer is looking like lay offs and bad times are a head, and the market is really good, do you stay and wait or do you start looking now? You defenitley shouldn't wait to be last one to tirn of the lights, because at the very least your gonna compete with your former co-workers.
"If you must panic, panic early. Be scared when you can, not when you have to. "
@nntaleb
I was an independent consultant from a 2001 dot-bomb layoff to the beginning of 2008. I saw hard times coming and took a job with the most bomb-proof client I had, and it worked out really well.
I'm looking at a non zero propability of having to do that in the next 12-18 months. Not disclose too much, let's say it is funding related and has nothing to do with me.
Now my problem is that I have to move to something, and not away from something. If the company and job aren't intriguing I have a tendency to perform not as good. And I still like my employer and manager, the latter more than the former. Plus, I need to be able to show something before switching jobs.
Something to think about on the next weeks and months, especially with a family and commitments. As I said, the market is good. I wouldn't have much trouble finding something if I really wanted to. On the other hand, having a stable income after a failed attempt on a start-up is quite nice, and I'm out of the probation period.
Pretty much, if you can choose the parts of the company which are profitable and self sustaining. If given the choice, avoid profitable businesses that rely on other companies growth projections (aka ads)
I was genuinely scared when my time came, and it took another 4 months, but I consider myself lucky but am uncomfortable with the fact that a previous manager of mine at one of those large/profitable companies which had one of those fishing job postings, saw my resume and swapped me for one of his under performers (aka someone got laid off at the end of the fiscal year, and I got hired). And I took a ~40% pay cut for the privilege.
Literally the only people who were getting hired in my area where situations like that. Never assume you will get hired during a downturn unless you have a really solid network of people who will risk their own positions for you and/or work at companies that treat people like cogs to be replaced if they can get a cheaper/more effective cog.
I was at another stable but small company during the 2008 downturn, and I sadly had to turn away a lot of people I would have loved to work with again, but we were on a hard hiring freeze (the ones where upper mgmt breaths a sigh every-time someone leaves of their own volition because it gives them a bit more breathing room). So these times hurt no matter which end of the table your on.
So, don't assume the job market will remain the way it is today.