It is not about absolute values, it is about trends. There's no question the tech sector is small, relatively speaking, but agriculture and manufacturing jobs are shrinking while technology-based jobs are growing.
For every job lost in agriculture and manufacturing, there is a new job in the tech industry. However, unless you are highly skilled, nobody will be interested in you. That is the problem. Farmers desperately want skilled people too, but they will hire anyone if they absolutely have to, simply because the job has to be done. In tech, if you can't find that perfect programmer, it doesn't matter all that much if it takes an additional six months to start the product.
Google claims they have approximately 2,000 open positions at all times. If those jobs had to be filled at all cost, they would have no trouble finding people. There are more than 2,000 unemployed people in the USA. The point is that they aren't really in need of filling those roles, it is more of a "nice to have" thing. They are waiting for great people.
My corner is agriculture and technology, so I get to see the vast differences in how people are hired.
So, then, how do we increase the supply of "great people?"
I argue that there is a percentage in the agriculture, call center, and manufacturing industry, if given the six years of math and programming, could be top programmers. These same people would be motivated to do so, but have families to feed and mortgages to pay.
We have potential supply. We have demand. How do we get from A to B?
Well, therein lies the problem I see. I do agree that anyone can become a great programmer. But, If everyone is a great programmer, a small subset will be even greater programmers and all of the companies will want to wait to hire them. There is, again, no drive to hire just anyone.
I'm not certain there is any solution that can come from the top. However, hungry people always find a way. I do feel we'll eventually see some big shifts in the employment structure to deal with the problem, started from the bottom. It is not going to happen overnight though.
That is one likely shift. That the great programmers, and people of all tech disciplines for that matter, will do their own great things, rather than be employed by someone else; who will only hire the really great. Again, there is no reason for employers to take on the risk of just a great programmer when they can wait for a really great programmer. Just being a great programmer will not be enough for employment.
However, right now, that is not a role the average American wants to take on, even if they have the skills. Much of our society is based around the idea of a stable income from being employed by others. People of HN are typically outliers in that regard.
For most existing industry's, 1 new tech job costs more than 1 non tech job. Because the tech job costs more so it need to replace more than 1 job or there is no reason to change.
PS: That's not to say increased efficiency is bad, but it requires someone to spend that new wealth on something before a new job shows up. I have personally destroyed over 100 jobs and while in theory they are going to pop up at some other place in the economy they can just as easily pop up on the other side of the world.
For every job lost in agriculture and manufacturing, there is a new job in the tech industry. However, unless you are highly skilled, nobody will be interested in you. That is the problem. Farmers desperately want skilled people too, but they will hire anyone if they absolutely have to, simply because the job has to be done. In tech, if you can't find that perfect programmer, it doesn't matter all that much if it takes an additional six months to start the product.
Google claims they have approximately 2,000 open positions at all times. If those jobs had to be filled at all cost, they would have no trouble finding people. There are more than 2,000 unemployed people in the USA. The point is that they aren't really in need of filling those roles, it is more of a "nice to have" thing. They are waiting for great people.
My corner is agriculture and technology, so I get to see the vast differences in how people are hired.