Reasonable. It's an 'I believe' claim based not an 'based on these facts' claim. But, I am more informed that most as I spent five years in the industry leading all algorithm/ML development for autonomous systems at Apple. (Who I am leaving out of this analysis BTW :)
Self-driving car is not only radar and good model. Tesla has their own battery factories, own mines, own delivery chain, years of experience of actual real world traffic data from all around the world.
You have to look at volume, Tesla soon will be producing millions of electric cars per year.
They already won the market. It will take years for competition to catch up.
If ppl want to gamble with their money and buy a car that never hit a real world traffic -> let them do it, but every other manufacturer is going to have to go through the same painful process as Tesla already did.
Not even mentioning that no other company beside maybe Toyota has any real experience with electric cars.
Working as an eng leader for five years in the industry gave me a considerable base of factual knowledge about the state of the industry even beyond my own company.
I was just summing up my knowledge with an (I thought innocuous) 'I believe' statement. Sounds like you believe otherwise. That's cool with me, and I don't doubt you have good reasons way :)
