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> will be potentially pretty hard to, more than mere "minutes."

This makes it sound like you’re arguing against something no one said — which makes it a weird thing to quote.



A quote from the GP

> The answer it gave me was surprisingly coherent wise and useful. From there (AGI) we could be minutes away from artificial super intelligence

What am I missing? I assumed of course that they didn't mean literal minutes but more metaphorically, but my reply was also using it in the metaphoric sense - it could be a potentially heavy lift to go from point A to point B.

e: I guess I am missing that they are conflating GPT with AGI and saying it will be minutes from AGI to artificial super intelligence in the literal sense. That, I actually do agree with, but I don't think GPT-X or PaLM or LMs in general qualify as such.


I read it in a different way, where we’d go from “plays chess like a bad human” to “plays chess superhumanly”, applied to general knowledge synthesis tasks — something that would be a rapid change once it was able to synthesize general knowledge answers.

Upon reflection, my comment was too critical for having a different read than you did.




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