The board could very easily have blown up the deal, which is proceeding only because they've consented to it. The game plan is simple: they do nothing, Musk executes a tender offer (which has a good chance of failing, so there's an out), the board says "nice job, but we're holding out for more money, check in with us next year", Musk launches a proxy fight, but it goes nowhere because Twitter has a staggered board and so there's no chance of a change of control within the next 12 months, 11 months go by, and we look at the price of the stock; if it's up, Twitter's board has de facto won the argument; if it's down, Musk's bid is no longer economically rational. Repeat.
The most boring conclusion here (boringness on message boards usually being a strong proxy for accuracy) is that the board's initial reaction to Musk's offer was reflexive, the same way you'd push back on someone offering to buy your house based on a fixed premium from like Zillow, and that over the ensuing weeks they've managed to do the homework to evaluate the deal, and they've decided Musk is overpaying, so they're taking him up on it.
From everything I've read --- I'm not an expert and someone like 'JumpCrisscross could jump in and correct me --- is that the deal blowing up was essentially the default state, once the shareholder rights plan was put in place.
There’s an alternative explanation to why the board did what they did: Musk has played fast and loose with “I have the funding for this deal” and “I am correctly disclosing my share purchases” in the past. The poison pill was a way to get him to slow down and talk to the board and get his lawyers to sit down with their lawyers and make sure this wasn’t going to be another “I’m taking Tesla private” moment.
(not saying you’re wrong, both or neither of these may be true)
Sure, I'm not unbiased here and am framing this in the way least favorable to Musk --- that if a board is going to accept a first (=chuckle= no, "final") offer from a bidder, it's because the price is more than the board thinks the company is worth. But it's also true that they may have done that calculation quickly, and that really they were just making sure this wasn't an elaborate joke.
Part of my analysis is based on the rumor that Twitter completed a valuation over the weekend, and it wasn't super favorable. But I've got no reliable reporting that establishes that.
Either way, my real point is just that the board could easily have stopped this deal if they wanted to; in fact, they didn't even have to do anything to do stop it.
The share price reflects the market's valuation of the company, and shareholders are not going to want to sell for a price less than the current share price plus a premium.
Maybe if the board had information that hadn't been published yet showing that the company's financials had completely tanked since the last earnings report it would be different, but other than that, Twitter's financials are obviously public, and even if the board used something like the DCF method and obtained a number much lower than the market cap, that has absolutely no bearing on whether they would accept a certain price from Musk.
So, no, it's really the share price that matters in this situation.
Also, even if you're purely talking about valuations, there are other common valuation methods like the comparable method that look at what similar companies have received based on their share price, so the idea that the board would decide to sell purely based on cashflow projections is not correct.
No, that's not true. The board's job is to determine how far off the share price is from what they believe the company is worth based on their own internal projections. The board is certainly not expected to take the spot price of Twitter common stock as the ground truth of the company's valuation.
Technically they could, but once fiduciary duty is considered, and also given recent drops and maybe less than spectacular q1 results which as I understand are to come soon, they probably decided they shouldn't, as this may expose them to torches and pitchforks from shareholders that are less ideologically driven than they are.
Yes, Musk's bid may be overpaying, but in that case board's duty is to grab the money - and that's probably why he is overpaying.
The most boring conclusion here (boringness on message boards usually being a strong proxy for accuracy) is that the board's initial reaction to Musk's offer was reflexive, the same way you'd push back on someone offering to buy your house based on a fixed premium from like Zillow, and that over the ensuing weeks they've managed to do the homework to evaluate the deal, and they've decided Musk is overpaying, so they're taking him up on it.
From everything I've read --- I'm not an expert and someone like 'JumpCrisscross could jump in and correct me --- is that the deal blowing up was essentially the default state, once the shareholder rights plan was put in place.