I’m not sure I understand. If the effect shown in the paper is regression to the mean, then that does mean the paper doesn’t actually demonstrate what it claims to, right? I mean you can argue that the idea is still plausible, but this would mean that the paper doesn’t support the claim that low skill people overestimate themselves, right?
It’s also an interpretation to focus on unskilled people as the explanation. DK’s data shows the very same effect on highly skilled people. The people in the top quartile were just as bad at self-estimating as the bottom quartile, yet the paper claims only the unskilled people were unaware!
I recommend reading the DK paper. It didn’t test any people of low ability, and it did not evaluate skill in absolute terms. The sample size was tiny. The kids who participated were all earning extra credit in a class (it’s a self-selecting population that might have excluded both A students and F students.) The students were all Ivy League undergrads who might all overestimate their abilities precisely because they’re in a prestigious school and their parents told them they’re great. The paper didn’t test any actual low IQ population. The paper has methodology problems when it comes to non-native English speakers.
It absolutely blows my mind that the paper is held up as evidence for some kind of universal human trait with such miniscule and completely questionable evidence. I have no doubt that some people overestimate their abilities in some situations. Like you, I’m sure, I’ve witnessed that. But as a commentary on all of humanity, I’m becoming convinced that the so-called DK effect does not exist, that they didn’t show what they claim to show. It doesn’t help that many replication attempts have not only failed to replicate, but have ended up showing the opposite effect: that for many kinds of skilled activities, people.
It’s also an interpretation to focus on unskilled people as the explanation. DK’s data shows the very same effect on highly skilled people. The people in the top quartile were just as bad at self-estimating as the bottom quartile, yet the paper claims only the unskilled people were unaware!
I recommend reading the DK paper. It didn’t test any people of low ability, and it did not evaluate skill in absolute terms. The sample size was tiny. The kids who participated were all earning extra credit in a class (it’s a self-selecting population that might have excluded both A students and F students.) The students were all Ivy League undergrads who might all overestimate their abilities precisely because they’re in a prestigious school and their parents told them they’re great. The paper didn’t test any actual low IQ population. The paper has methodology problems when it comes to non-native English speakers.
It absolutely blows my mind that the paper is held up as evidence for some kind of universal human trait with such miniscule and completely questionable evidence. I have no doubt that some people overestimate their abilities in some situations. Like you, I’m sure, I’ve witnessed that. But as a commentary on all of humanity, I’m becoming convinced that the so-called DK effect does not exist, that they didn’t show what they claim to show. It doesn’t help that many replication attempts have not only failed to replicate, but have ended up showing the opposite effect: that for many kinds of skilled activities, people.