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This confused me at first too. The issue is that "X" is your performance, and "Y" is your perceived performance.

Say that everyone is equally okay at assessing themselves, and get within 0.1 of their actual performance (rated from 0 to 1). Then X and Y are going to be very correlated, as X - 0.1 < Y < X + 0.1. But X-Y will look like a random plot, since Y is randomly sampled around X.

The only case where X and Y wouldn't correlate at all is if people have no ability to assess their performance (IE, Y isn't sampled around X, but is instead sampled from a fixed range).




That's exactly the difference this article is driving at!




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