First one. The devastation will be unimaginable and irreversible. At least with climate it will be possible for human kind to hobble forward somehow. And changing the climate would be infinitely easier than putting the AGI genie back in its bottle.
We need some bookies in this thread. A lot of AGI skeptics could get very rich at the expense of those that are absolutely convinced that AGI/singularity is coming soon. I'm willing to put down 10k that "the singularity" (by some agreed upon definition) will not happen by 2050.
Chances of climate crisis happening in our lifetime x devastation caused by climate crisis
Which one do you think is higher?