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The rapid scaling of Qubits is thrilling and terrifying, notably for the implications on public key cryptography.



There are already public key schemes that are resilient to quantum attacks and I would be surprised if we build a scalable reliable quantum computer before we switch to these (not yet well tested) schemes. Old recorded communications will be decrypted but historically that has not been a very big deal.


When they say "resilient to quantum attacks" they just mean there is no known algorithm that could solve them efficiently. But since they aren't popular and we don't have quantum computers, not many people are even trying.


You are right! Just for completeness, I would add that bodies like NIST and various universities and researchers are putting significant effort into this work. I am indeed not qualified enough to compare their efforts to what the industry has already put in studying current encryption schemes.


We have not yet achieved even a single logical qubit suitable for breaking cryptography so it is impossible to estimate a scaling rate...




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