Prepper videos on YouTube are heavily monetized by snakeoil companies preying upon people's anxiety. Or made by people with various belief systems in conflict with reality. Theyre not effective, either.

1. You will never have a "bomb shelter". Dropping a crate in the ground is a good way to die from carbon dioxide poisoning and offers no bomb or bullet protection. At that point just have a house with a basement. Actual bomb shelters are a nightmare and do not last long. Metal rusts, the earth moves, and if someone wants to they'll plug your exhaust anyway.

2. Most foods, even canned, do not last that long. If youre canning yourself you have to add preservatives, even. Water does not stay good sitting, again, you'll have to have a method to treat it. However if you live in the country you already have a well. No you do not want short well. Think about how to deliver 240V30A for short periods for the well pump. The electrical systems to do this are expensive.

3. If you are actually having to live in a basement on limited food and water you're already dead. There is no scenario that you will have to do this and come out alive. If the world becomes post apocalyptic and people want your supplies they will get them. Doesn't matter if you have a giant vault. Play a bit of fallout to see what I mean. If nukes are dropping you're dead in months anyways.

Focus mainly on real, independent solutions to being self sustainable. Solar power, solar greenhouses, self defense, farming methods. Don't buy into rhetoric or belief systems. Have math lead you.

When it comes to construction people on YouTube are terrible. They build all sorts of things that will not live long.

>Focus mainly on real, independent solutions to being self sustainable. Solar power, solar greenhouses, self defense, farming methods. Don't buy into rhetoric or belief systems. Have math lead you.

This is my line of thinking here too. Though it seems necessary to additionally have that 3-month supply as a quick buffer while you build up your capacity for long-term solutions in parallel over time. I.E we're also starting a garden and considering investing in some way to run even a limited amount of off-grid power.

Edit: I'm actually not worried about bombs at all in my case, but more the complete breakdown of global trade.

This is more dire than it needs to be. All this "depends" on a lot. You're not guaranteed to be killed by the blast, or fallout, or neighbors "plugging your exhaust" (why would they do that?!). The size and scope of the nuclear exchange itself, your proximity to blasts, wind patterns, weather, many factors affect survivability.

A lot of people survived in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

>A lot of people survived in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

That wasn't an exchange. That was a sucker-punch. I made a bet with my friends several weeks before Putin invaded that I think that's what could be on the cards for Ukraine because I didn't forsee any other way for him to win and concluded that he wouldn't accept not winning and it's really the only asymmetry he has. However, I don't think that would lead to an 'exchange' by any other nuclear power as that would just be suicidal and I'm sure Biden would rather live his comfortable lifestyle than kill everyone on earth.

I only buy stuff if Alex Jones advertises it without a shirt on.

A 3 month supply has always been the sensible position. It came in handy when the pandemic hit. It came in handy the last time gas prices went so high that supply lines were threatened. It comes in handy if you lose a job and need to curtail spending for a few weeks. It even comes in handy if you get a surprise visit from family and need to whip up a meal 3 times the size you thought you would need that night.

There are many reasons that having some surplus can stabilize your life, and they are not all about societal-level disruptions.

This is also why it is such a problem that so many people do not have the resources to do this.

I was going to comment, but this is what I was going to write.

In addendum, one does not need to go overboard in their prepping, or even seem like they're prepping. When my wife and I started prepping 4 years ago (before pandemic, before etc. etc.) we just began buying a little bit extra in our weekly shop. Cans last forever, sugar lasts forever if kept dry. Nobody's going to notice if you buy a big cube of toilet paper one week, then another the next week, and suddenly you have a 3 month supply.

Watching the news is honestly optional, and for me only brings anxiety. There's always going to be crap going on in the world and it's always going to be sensible to have some extra packed away.

If you happen to live in the USA, the Mormons have what they call Home Storage Centers, where I believe you can go in with your own food and use their equipment to preserve it, or you can buy food from them already preserved. Ask your Mormon friends, they're taught to prepare.

P.S. Some other, non-world-ending reasons to have a stash: Friend calls and tells you they're in desperate need of food, you can raid the cupboard and take over an emergency hamper without having to spend. Rains cut off your only bridge to town for a couple of days (happened to me recently). Floods, fires or drought in other parts of the country cut off supply chains for a couple of days, and while others are stripping the shelves bare, you can stay at home and avoid the doorbusters. Lots more reasons, and you don't have to be worried about world events to have it make sense for you.

Yeah, I've only just recently come to see how sensible it actually is from just a daily life point of view.

There is nothing sensible about a 3 month supply of food and water. A typical family should have 10L of water per day (just for fluid intake). A 3 month supply would be ~250 gallons. That alone is impractical. On average, adults eat something like 2.5 lbs of food per day, call it 8 lbs for a family and say you lean toward dense things like beans (not rice) and you only need 5lbs per day. That's still almost 500 lbs of food for a 3-month supply.

I wouldn't consider anyone storing that much food or water to be "reasonable".

> A 3 month supply would be ~250 gallons. That alone is impractical.

250 gallons is just under 1½ cubic yards. It could easily fit in a closet.

250 pounds of rice fits into 4.8 cubic feet. It could easily fit into a shelf.

250 pounds of beans fits into 4.2 cubic feet. It too could easily fit into a shelf.

You would also need fuel for 90–180 cookings, but that too will fit into a relatively small area. Everyone with a home (this is part of why so many folks like a home!) and most people with an apartment could find enough spare space for three months of the bare essentials. Certainly everyone who has a place to live has enough space for 30 days' worth.

Share with us what size your home is that makes it unreasonable?

I live in a big farmhouse in the country, with multiples wells, barns, and pantries, so storage is not a concern at all. But I could see where it would be a problem for smaller homes and apartments.

3 month supply of everything is very expensive

Is it? It always seemed like more of a cash flow question to me. You buy whatever you are going to use, put it at the back of the shelf, and grab the thing you bought 3 months ago. Clearly, we're talking about only non-perishables here. But the goal of a 3 month supply is not a hoard in a closet that is pulled out in an emergency, but a flow of goods through your normal life. You build up to the supply a bit at a time, so it is never a full 3 month purchase, but a slow steady growth until you hit your goal.

To add to this: Buy in bulk when it goes on sale and replace individual units as consumed. No need to buy it all right away when you can slowly acquire bulk bargains whenever the opportunity arises.

In Switzerland (formerly preper heaven, the government would even pay on your foundation if you put in a shelter) it used to be normal for everyone to have a specific amount of supplies in case of an emergency. From Iodine pills to water. This fits together with the bomb shelters that every one has access to.

Now a days many are completely oblivious and have no clue although the government provides a handy guide to what you should keep [1] . Most have iodine pills at home as they are sent in the mail if you are close enough to a nuclear reactor. Everyone else can get them for free at the pharmacy.

In fact many don't know where their bomb shelter is, if it's not part of their home. Every home used to have a yellow plak which stated where the shelter is but because people are very mobile today the government will inform the public where they should shelter when an incident occurs. Also many of the bomb shelters are now used for other things such as storage. I remember as a kid when we bribed the inspector to come back later so we could clean out the shelter for inspection so we would not be fined. The shelters have active air filters and other requirements that were regularly inspected. At least you can now use them for storage and other things as long as you can clean it out in 24-48 hours.

Sirens are tested once a year and usually will freakout tourists which is entertaining to watch.

For anyone visiting or living in Switzerland I highly recommend downloading the Alert Swiss app [2] which will let you know what is going on like if you should close windows because of a chemical fire or if there is a siren test.

[1] https://www.bwl.admin.ch/bwl/en/home/themen/notvorrat.html

[2] https://www.alert.swiss/

I sat here reading this thinking "that is really cool," followed immediately by "hang on a minute I'm only ~750km away." I can't work out if I'm woefully ignorant of the procedures in the UK or if I live somewhere that has no general plans.

Half an hour in to the rabbit hole my answer appears to be: perhaps learn how to use a shovel. There isn't a whole lot of useful info on the government website¹ for longer term problems², not even a calming procedure to deal with the pain from the typo emergency in the first URL.

¹ https://www.gov.uk/government/emergency-preparation-reponse-...

² https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-reg...

Switzerland is so interesting. Genuinely would love to live there.

I think the proper way to prep is not individually but communally. See if your local government has any disaster preparation programs and get involved with those. YouTube videos are mostly for driving ad revenue and selling you garbage after making you anxious and don't solve the underlying problem of fragile global supply chains and supply shocks.

The main thing currently that no one seems concerned about is the reduction of grain production from Russia and Ukraine because of the war. This is going to have a global impact and will increase food scarcity that a 3 month individual supply can not do anything about.

>The main thing currently that no one seems concerned about is the reduction of grain production from Russia and Ukraine because of the war. This is going to have a global impact and will increase food scarcity that a 3 month individual supply can not do anything about.

This is the main thing that has gotten me worried. In 2010 there was a heatwave in Russia that affected the wheat harvest and in 2011 we had the Arab spring. There are an increasingly large number of failed states or states that are on the verge of tipping into that in that region of the world too. Lebanon's grain storage capacity was reduced to a month's supply after the Beirut explosion. Water tables are very stressed in Morocco which supplies the majority of the worlds rock phosphate which is the critical input into phosphate fertilizers which massively boost agricultural productivity beyond normal means. When you dig down into it it's clear the world is in a "food bubble" supported by over-pumping of water from aquifers, hydrocarbons, globalization.

The ripple effect the economics are going to have will be pretty far reaching.

Then you understand that an individual can not fix these problems on their own which is why I recommended joining folks in your local vicinity that are similarly concerned about these issues and then seeing what can be done at the local level to mitigate them collectively instead of individually.

Yes, I'm very much with you on that.

One thing the pandemic taught me was that when the disaster comes, it's going to be your local community that turns on you first. Given the mask hoarding/reselling, toilet paper hoarding, gasoline hoarding, store price gouging and general antisocial behavior that we saw during 2020, I have no doubt that it would be a mistake to rely on altruistic, cooperative, community action. When I lived in Florida, after every hurricane, you'd see dozens of guys driving around with 4 brand new generators in the back of their pickup trucks, looking to sell them to desperate homeowners for 10X their cost.

For every one person who participates in a helpful community disaster preparation program, there are 20 who will instead look for ways to profit from a disaster and screw everyone else.

> One thing the pandemic taught me was that when the disaster comes, it's going to be your local community that turns on you first.

Whereas folks in my neighbourhood all pitched in to do grocery runs for the old and infirm.

> … after every hurricane, you'd see dozens of guys driving around with 4 brand new generators in the back of their pickup trucks, looking to sell them to desperate homeowners for 10X their cost.

Those guys are doing good: they are taking generators to people who need them. You see only the price, not the fact that the person who pays that price thinks he is better off with a generator than with the money. And those higher prices incentivise other folks to bring in more generators, which means … everyone who needs a generator will eventually get one. That is how markets work!

People here made masks for each other, helped elderly and what not. I can totally see people sux in scarcity situation, but all in all, this pandemic was people trying to help and be helping.

>all in all, this pandemic was people trying to help and be helping.

Even here in South Australia where we were had tiny numbers (a few 10s of cases a day), the supermarket shelves were stripped bare of toilet paper, sanitizer, hand towels, food).

People suck

Weirdly, in Bendigo a bunch of Asian tour buses came up from Melbourne explicitly so they could raid the supermarkets. Crazy stuff.

yeah it turned into bizzaro world for a few months, which was especially weird since we were basically Covid free for the majority of the past 2 years.

I guess I am lucky, but there was no toilet paper shortage.

In a true apocalyptic scenario where life won’t go back to normal we’ll force bullets into those guys and steal their generators while they dry heave blood on the ground.

Careful what you wish for. The average techie is a lot less prepared for rule of law to go out the window than the kind of people you're deriding are.

Techies are far more valuable in the post apocalyptic world than you think. When the initial bloodshed subsides, people will want rudimentary communication apps and networks to get back to the old days. Only techies can build to those standards.

In many cases “techies” and “those guys” are the same people.

I largely expect this to be true. I also expect that with the passage of time there will be a decrease in population density to the point where an equilibrium is found between people and resources and behavior becomes more sociable again as that balance is restored. So, enough to get passed that initial period seems like a wise investment compared to being caught short. Will you survive the potential violence? I'd say that's stochastic, but you may as well take the chance.

Not sure why you’re getting downvoted but you’re right: people won’t just go away and die quietly. Maintaining a 24x7 guard over your supplies must be part of your prepper plans. Even then you’d better have the constitution to kill anyone trying to get your stuff. It’s not a pleasant thought and almost nobody is prepared to endure such a nightmare.

This is why prepping alone is impractical unless you’re just planning to live somewhere completely isolated from any possible humans.

I’ve always felt part of prepping should be to establish documents that details alliances and property rights with your neighbors and other preppers so when the government collapses you have a procedure to bring up a local rule of law and order very quickly.

Expecting government help instead of taking responsibility is not the proper way. If you are able to take care of yourself you take a strain off whatever limited resources are left to help those who can't help themselves. Be a resource not a drain.

Ensuring government help for others instead of only looking out for yourself is still helpful.

By getting involved in the government and helping prepare for disasters is the very definition of taking responsibility for yourself and being a resource for those around you.

Russian here. No, I'm not prepping in the traditional sense of the word (e.g. a bunker, a stockpile of canned food and ammo, iodine, books on survival etc.).

All my prepping is Russia-specific: making sure that my commercial VPN is paid for 3 years in advance, my self-hosted VPN is up and running, a European friend's credit card is added everywhere as the billing method, etc. My next work PC will run on Linux (normally I'm a Windows guy), and we had a lot of discussions about what we can do if our Internet "suddenly" becomes "sovereign".

No idea what to do about bricked iOS and Android phones yet.

WRT those phones, if they can connect to your own system at home you can run a tunnel - Wireguard, OpenVPN or anything similar - to it and escape to the outside that way. This is more or less the same method as used to safely use public Wifi networks.

Sounds like you're staying in Russia? I read there is already a flood of tech people out of the country.

There absolutely is a flood. Mostly to Armenia and Georgia.

As for me, I'm torn on staying vs leaving. This may seem irrational (and it probably is), but this is my home. I'll be perfectly fine in any European country on a day-to-day level, but I'll never be at home (and I'll need a thicker skin since we're the nazis now). There are people and places in Russia that I love, and my life won't be complete without them. I guess I'm just old.

On the other hand, we may soon live in a Gulag. I'm already cleaning the history of some of my Telegram chats when I go outside. People are getting arrested for holding a sign with asterisks ("*** *****") or just a blank sheet of paper, and you can get a prison term for a careless repost.

On the third hand, Russia may crumble. Our resources aren't unlimited. We are under the heaviest sanctions in history, our industry is a sham, our energy exports will cease in a couple of years, we've already committed 70% of our military to the war, and this won't end even if we "win" -- we'll need to provide police / counter-guerilla presence over a country that's 30 times (times, not percent!) larger than Chechnya, for at least a decade. And we'll need to rebuild a couple of Stalingrads to boot. I can't see how this is sustainable.

TL;DR: Decisions are hard.

I can definitely understand that feeling of home. I wish you good luck with either choice. The people of neither country deserve the current situation nor the consequences of what is happening.

Yes, you've read my mind, somehow. I've gotten into prepping.

The pandemic, supply chain issues, an increasing rise in authoritarianism, climate change, and now the war in Ukraine have all evidenced the fact that the assumption that 'progress is inevitable' is, in many ways a delusional idea - at the very least, to be in a state of denial of world events.

In my view, being a prepper, these days is a 'normal' and very rational reaction. Not being a 'prepper' is perhaps to be being in denial of what's been happening int the last 5-10 yrs.

My grandma who had survived the Great Depression, used to have a huge pantry in her house filled with canned foods. As kids, we were bewildered by it. Now, I completely understand it - as she had lived through many of the things we are living through now.

As others have mentioned, it's easy to get swept up in the panic of preparation. I've had the conversation with my wife that no matter what you do, you will not be able to prepare for everything. (Jokingly, I'm reminded of the couple in Tremors with their underground bunker that a Grabboid bursts into.) You will likely be unproductive if you're trying to plan for every contingency.

I recommend starting slowly. Build up a week, then a few weeks. Buy ingredients and foods that you like and will eat. Avoid buying a "food supply" and instead increase your pantry that you rotate food out of in the course of a normal week or month. Make sure you also build up a relatively liquid savings. It's far more likely that you personally will face an economic hard time than it is for us all to be facing apocalyptic dystopia.

My church recommended for a long time having a year's supply of food for security. I think many people thought it was a forewarning of coming global destruction, but as I've reflected on it, it's much more about personal hardship and caring for oneself, family and community.

The rotation is important. Your stash needs to be a FIFO buffer that gets refreshed reasonably often. Otherwise you're just stockpiling really old food and watery gas etc.

Not a prepper in the prepper-you-see-on-youtube sense, not at all.

I do however get a few weeks to few months supply of things like TP, water, canned foods.

Not because I'm afraid of war, at this point I'm more afraid of shortages.

As long as it looks like inflation will keep being high, it will make sense to buy early.

Suddenly? Not really, I've always maintained a deep pantry as an adult because that's how my parents live because that's why their parents lived. But, after Hurricane Harvey I got serious about natural disaster preparedness (I live in SoCal, so it's earthquakes here) and now have a 2-3 month supply of treated water (I rotate ~1/4 of it every 3-4 months), first aid supplies, etc. And we became more conscious as a family in disaster planning. We have get-home bags in both cars. More practical things like that, as opposed to going full in in grinding my own wheat berries, etc.

Depending on where you are you need different plans.

When you are in an urban setting / high density population center in eastern or central Europe ATM, do not prepare to shelter in place, better plan out your escape: where to, with whom, via which route and most important when is your trigger moment? You need to get out such that you can reach your destination before the rest of the population also decided to move. Otherwise highways are blocked, gas stations overrun and you are stuck. You need a community to survive. Talk to relatives / friends now. Have a bag packed, the gas tank full to leave with the hour and a diversity of cash (swiss franc, Norwegian or Czech crown, etc).

In a rural setting, educate your self about sustainable agriculture practice. Fertilizers are a thing of the past now. Move away from mono cultural cash crop. Look for poly cultures that can feed you and your community. Be prepared that refugees from cities will come in masses.

In any case, use the remaining time to learn valuable skills. Get healthy and fit. Learn to cook. Do a first-aid course. Especially as a software dev, learn Handy work so you can be of tangible help in your community. Learn self-defense (to which extreme you wanna take it, is up to you).

I'm prepper, but I've been following Joel Skousen since 2005 who has been predicting ww3 with China + Russia vs the West, his geopolitical analysis on Ukraine makes everyone else look foolish, its not free, but you can get a free sample. https://www.worldaffairsbrief.com/ Also prepper tip, buy SPAM at Aldi its lie $2 for 1200 cals of meat.

My real prep, to be honest, is trying to maintain a state of grace in the pre-vatican2 Catholic Church. http://vaticancatholic.com for details

This is one of the best parts of having a chronic illness and not having more than a couple months of life-sustaining medication on hand. No need to prep!

I’m very gently getting some stuff prepared. Just picked up a tiny battery-powered radio (AM/FM/SW/NOAA Weather/aviation), likely gonna start building a small emergency bag over the coming weeks. I live in an earthquake-prone area, so being prepared for those is my more long-term use.

I don't see the point of it even though I live 50kms from the border of Ukraine

- You need a self-sustaining (for at least weeks) nuclear fallout shelter otherwise I think the whole thing is pointless. This takes a lot of money and time to build.

- I can't legally own a firearm in my country

You really don't need an expensive shelter. It comes down to the amount of dirt between you and the nuclear fallout particles. Every 3.6 inches (9.1cm) of well packed earth will halve the gamma rays that make it to your body. So, with around 18 inches (45 cm) of earth, you reduce the gamma radiation exposure to 1/32. After around 2 weeks, the vast majority of the fallout will have decayed and it will be safe to evacuate if you would like.

I also live near Ukraine (Poland):

- IIUC even if a tactical nuke were to hit Ukraine, if you stay inside for couple days, cover and stay away from windows, use your own water, use air filter - the amount of radiation is going to be small enough to not be a health hazard.

- Firearm license is not that hard to get. It's just an excuse.

> - Firearm license is not that hard to get. It's just an excuse.

Maybe not in Poland, but there are plenty of countries where it is difficult to acquire a firearm license, or outright impossible (for the purpose of being able to have actual firearms at home). GP never outlined what country they are living in either, so not sure how you can tell them it's just an excuse.

It's a common and rational response, but my philosophy tends to be slightly different:

If the world becomes the kind of place where those preparations are necessary, it's no longer the kind of world that I'd like to exist in. Buying from fear-mongers is only going to hasten the onset of a world like that, so I'm going to try to relax, have a bit of fun, and enjoy myself while taking care of others as best possible (which in my case, isn't always particularly well).

(I'm hyperfocused on the conflict too, although I guess our responses to the situation are different)

>If the world becomes the kind of place where those preparations are necessary, it's no longer the kind of world that I'd like to exist in.

That's my position in the case of a nuclear winter as that's fundamentally unsurvivable, so why bother right? However in the case of a total breakdown in global trade I'd be more willing to try stick it out.

Looking back at the historical record the collapse of the bronze-age civilization is the closest parallel I can see to what I would imagine will happen at some point to either us or our children. The best hypothesis I've seen on what happened there is there were a bunch of inter-dependent societies that traded with each-other by importing raw materials and producing finished goods and trading with others. There's evidence of drought over an extended period which led to both famine and migrations of people in famine affected areas to other locations in search of food that also brought people into conflict with each other and some evidence of internal uprisings from social unrest. Any one of those things in isolation seems not enough to take everything out, but when all occur at once it seems it caused a breakdown in trade which was sufficient enough to reduce the complexity of the society to the point that individuals that had come to rely on that complexity weren't able to survive it going away. There is a great talk on YouTube called "Social Collapse Best Practices" given by a guy who lived through the collapse of the Soviet Union and he compares it how he thinks the US would fare in a similar situation and gives practical advice as he sees the same structural forces at play that brought about that collapse. This talk was given in 2009. I've been digging back as far into the past as I can on people giving doomsday predictions and back-testing what they say to assess accuracy, and a very clear trend emerges that everyone who focuses on the fundamentals is largely right.

Sure, I see what you're saying, and I'm fairly resilient, but I don't think it should be anyone's duty to accept widespread, severe adversity based on the mistakes of world leaders.

It'd be a difficult, long grind back to normality with no guarantee of reaching a better or more equal world than today's (perhaps worse, given the way that resources were redistributed after the fall of the USSR, as I understand it).

If unrest really becomes that widespread, I'm off on the road with some books, the most-reliable, widely-compatible electronics available, whatever's left of my sense of humour, and a few stories.

>I don't think it should be anyone's duty to accept widespread, severe adversity based on the mistakes of world leaders

I think this is a worldview that's very centered on humanity and civilization as it stands today, and not reflective of the wider human experience across space and time. Adversity and conflict has historically been the norm, and "The Long Peace" is a true anomaly in world history. What we're likely to see is more a "regression to the mean", so to speak.

>It'd be a difficult, long grind back to normality with no guarantee of reaching a better or more equal world than today

I would posit there would be zero way back to where we are today. Ever. The easy to access hydrocarbons that were available to be exploited initially are no longer available and the ones we exploit today require tools, and techniques that would no longer be operable or reproducible given their complexity. I think that's true for an astounding amount of technology. I recently took my car for a warrant of fitness and it passed, but I was told I will need to replace the tires at some point in the near future. I was also told no tires were in stock. I assumed this was just due to Covid related shipping delays, but then I recently learned there was a rubber shortage. Digging into it I found that Thailand produces a remarkable portion of the worlds rubber. There are all sorts of these linkages in the supply chain that if one were to completely give out would lead to everything else being on a pretty limited timeline.

>If unrest really becomes that widespread, I'm off on the road with some books, the most-reliable, widely-compatible electronics available, whatever's left of my sense of humour, and a few stories.

Looting is the obvious thing in the short term you sort of expect to occur, so having supplies enough to put you out of the craziness of that would damp down risks there. I guess one hopes that the population density reduces to the point where pockets of people that band together stop facing immediate security threats and resources once used by people who are no longer around can be utilized by those that remain and at some point in that equation an equilibrium will be found.

Could you try challenging each of your own paragraphs, to determine whether you can find alternative perspectives?

After nearly a decade of slowly forming this picture and having it constantly shift and update as I acquire new information about the behavior of systems, human nature, complexity, and understanding history I'm not likely to radically reform it away from "society as we know it is at some point going away". The fundamentals just don't support it.

I'm curious what you've got though in terms of your own challenges to my view with respect to those paragraphs because I value accuracy in thinking, so if there's angles I've not yet had the opportunity to consider yet then I always like to know.

It's OK, thanks.

Heh, reminds me of my thoughts around bitcoin. The things that would need to happen to cause it to fail would be on such an order that bitcoin failing would be the least of my worries.

I haven't gone really hardcore into it, but am slowly collecting a "stash". I've been stocking up on extra cat food and litter for a while. I am also gathering canned goods and recently brought 3kg of rice, a first aid kit (and an extra one for the cats), duct tape, and a half-mask with a reusable particle filter. I'm aiming to have ~4 weeks of supplies on hand; next on the list is water. I also want to get a battery powered radio and some solar chargers.

I've become more relaxed recently, but here's the less crazy resources I used:

* https://archive.ph/Dt5rs which is now released in a book https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/

* https://theprepared.com/ which is still a bit crazy

I recommend this account of someone who survived a year of lawlessness and breakdown of society during the war in former Joguslavia in the nineties:

https://lulz.com/surviving-a-year-of-shtf-in-90s-bosnia-war-...

His biggest conclusion was IMO that, to survive, as long as you live in the city (or suburbs), you need to be a part of a group of people who support each other, and that group needs to be a family or VERY close friends [1]. If you don't have a group like that, then no matter how many guns and prepper gear you have, you're likely to die due to one of many possible threats. It might be somewhat different in rural areas, because of on the biggest sources of danger (other people) is much less present there - but, on the other hand, there's also much less people there to barter with, which makes suriving more dificult.

[1] Looser ties don't count, because in life or death situations, they'll choose the life of their family or close friends over yours.

I think its highly dependent on where you live.

I personally think the best thing you can do to prep is to be ready to change your country of origin and to try out many different cities to get a feel for them and whether you could live in them long term.

I think the issue is that perhaps people are not prepared to leave their familiar surroundings (myself included) and therefore wait too long and therefore risk becoming refugees as a result.

It's definitely highly dependent on where you live in some ways, but in other ways it really doesn't matter. I live in a remote corner of the world that is far from any conflict zones, so I'm not worried about that side of things. But both Covid and this war have highlighted how fragile the global supply chain is and after doing a number of deep dives on how reliant our current way of life is on those supply chains that my fear is that with everything going on at once if we start to see non-linear behavior in those supply chains then we're in a whole new world. Getting to a whole new world is baked into the fundamentals of our society anyway, so regardless of whether this particular period in time is the catalyst doesn't really matter, but there sure are an awful lot of flashing red lights on the dashboard that I'm seeing.

There is not going to be a third world war or anything similarly catastrophic in the short timeframe, as far as I can see. But for a long time I have been predicting that it will come within 20 - 40 years - if we don't do something. The currently renewed armsrace and polarization between various imperialist blocs that henceforth will ensue clearly points at a single catastrophic outcome.

People have so far generally not proven willing to face this danger explicitly, it has been (perhaps understandably) barred by some sort of collective mental block which spills over into prepperism, dreams of New Zealand or other planets. But none of this will likely help when a nuclear war between two or more global alliances is unleashed.

Perhaps now, when the nuclear nations are readying their warheads, people might finally realize the direty of the situation, this mental block might lift somewhat and we can start making plans for global peace instead of thinking of escape routes that lead nowhere or worse: "victory".

But I have to tell you, it doesn't look good.

Well I live in New Zealand, so that's a start. However, it's honestly not much help. It is for everyday run of the mill disasters. We did fantastic in Covid. But my assumption is the full breakdown of globalization leading to a massive reduction in the complexity of our societies. Covid highlighted "hey global supply chains are pretty resilient but not as much as you thought they were" and Vladolph Putler's little excursion into Ukraine highlighted "there are many weak links in the global supply chain that if enough of them snap will result in a runaway feedback loop and you will be in a whole new world".

I've spent hundreds of hours digging through https://oec.world/en/home-b and documentaries about various crisis sitauations in the world with respect to food, fuel, water shortages etc and sought out "doomsday" predictions from as far back as I could in order to backtest what people were saying 10 years ago etc. And yeah. It doesn't look good.

First of all forget about what popular media tells you. And yes that includes the "Threads" film, which somehow keeps popping up when people think "realistic post-apo".

Second, evaluate your risk. Depending on where you live your danger might be extremely limited, or enormous. But just like during the first wave of the pandemic, location is the key. Is your country threatened by a neighbor? Is it isolated? Is it rich or poor? Do you live close to military or other strategic infrastructure?

Finally, you can start preparing. But only after the first two.

In my case when the corona started spreading I've bought couple of packs of masks, latex gloves, vitamin supplements and antipyretics (reduces fever). And when the first emergency was announced (about 9 days later) I was fine.

I didn't waste money on stuff that remained plentiful, I didn't buy expensive toys like a fallout shelter. I was calm and evaluating my risk before doing something.

You should too.

Most preppers live in a fantasy. It’s mostly an excuse to buy toys.

If you’re really interested in being able to handle situations, join the ultra-light crowd. They mostly beat preppers at their own game. It’s harder, less toys, etc, but if you look at people in situations where fuel (and thus cars) is a luxury, the first thing people do is shed weight.

We stocked up to one month of supplies in January '20 due to pandemic fears. At the time we were concerned that we wouldn't want to go to a grocery store or that there would be a run on the markets. Our stores are currently at about 50% now. I intend to go up to 3 months of stores in the next couple weeks.

My main concern is grain and fertilizer. I expect food price spikes and shortages. I don't expect shortages in the sense of starvation risk, more like - they won't have the brands or types of food we're used to. The stores are mainly protection for if goes worse than I expect.

Regarding nuclear, I've looked at what installing a bomb shelter would cost, but it's a nonstarter with my wife. Instead, we've just decided on where we'll go and what we'll do if we get the warning on our phones. Luckily, I still think nuclear exchange is highly unlikely.

>I don't expect shortages in the sense of starvation risk, more like - they won't have the brands or types of food we're used to. The stores are mainly protection for if goes worse than I expect.

That's probably true for where you and I live, but the higher prices for us is something we can afford, for others it's being priced out of the market. A certain amount of that may happen in our local communities or country, but there are places in the world that import a lot of food that will potentially face starvation on a bigger scale. My worry about that is bigger conflicts erupting either begins to disrupt shipping to the point where it spills over into hardships closer to home, and/or such disruptions break fundamental weak links in the global trade system i.e rubber supply from Thailand or phosphate rock supply from Morocco etc.

I'm not worried about a nuclear exchange at all. I don't think there's much point even being worried about it. That's one that if it happens it happens and oh well. I don't think it's likely, but I did make a bet with my friends several weeks before Putin invaded that given there was no way he would be able to accomplish his strategic objectives otherwise that his only option to ensure a win was to commit mass atrocity to force capitulation of the Ukrainian people, and my bet specifically was that he would drop a tactical nuke on Ukraine in order to try and do that. I think where the conflict stands now is in the recent few days we've hit another shift in strategy / tone from Moscow that we've hit a point where things are about to get ugly.

welcome friend!

you must be specific and stay in scope. prep for things you can manage and survive. doomsday preppers are neurotic idiots.

to me, prepping means hanging a water tight canvas bag in my tornado cellar (hung so critters dont get to it). there is food and water to survive in the cellar for weeks if we are inside and the house falls down on usm medkit too, amongst other things. my prepper expansion plans include a generator, solar panels, garden and chickens. do not fool yourself into homesteading - that is a full time job by itself. but you can pareto yourself into a much smaller reliance on outside support.

the bottom line is you won't survive a disaster by yourself. the wilderness might support you, but it wont support you and all your neighbors. true prepping means setting roots into your community and creating antifragility for everyone.

We were lucky that the recent tragic Marshall fires in the Boulder Colorado area didn't directly affect us, even though our home was near the boundary of a pre-evacuation area. But I have two colleagues who lost everything, and had almost no warning when the fire swept through their housing developments. So I finally put together a go-bag, a second go-bag just for our Beloved Feline Overlords, and put all our really important documents in a portable fire safe with a handle. I hope I never have to test this scheme.

For me it's hunting and long range shooting. Being able to hunt, accurately shoot 1000 yards, having 1000 ammo pieces and handloading set, 150 lbs of frozen and/or dried meet (a small deer weights that much). Hunting gear is a great survival gear as well.

Besides that fireplace, solar panels, heat pump, well insulated house, something for water, maybe add some knowledge about local flora and you can survive many years on that.

You can survive by hunting as long as not too many others are doing the same thing.

Or for as long as the bullets last and the trucks will have stopped rolling a loooong time ago, but it sure will provide you with a nice long buffer to figure things out in the meantime.

One bullet can last you very long time. I have been eating the same deer as a single source of meat since January and I'm not even half there yet.

Add some means of meat conservation and you could easily last a year on less than 10 bullets. I don't have a prepper ways to conservate meat though (sausage drying, vacuum sealing and solar panels powered freezer probably wouldn't work).

Damn. That's incredible.

Big deer or boar can weight over 300 pounds. About 2/3 is edible. Let's say one pound of lean meat is 800 kcal. And daily intake is 2000 kcal. Assuming eating only meat that's 80 days of calories.

The most likely outcome in a world where you need to use all your prepper supplies for a lengthy amount of time isn't that you (smart, prepared, ahead-of-the-curve) get to live while your neighbors (short-sighted, ignorant, arrogant) starve; people stronger and more ruthless than you are going to take your prepper supplies (over your dead body, if necessary) without thanking you for your foresight.

Yes. Though that's only a probabilistic outcome. And for what it's worth... I'll take that bet!

Edit: On second thought maybe I should hedge that bet by inviting my wife's BJJ blackbelt coach to live with us as security in exchange for a share of the food.

I think you’re right that you’re probably just neurotic.

I score in the 76th percentile for trait neuroticism and had a traumatic upbringing so my HPA-Axis is fried, I admit. I know that how I react to things is definitely not in-line with how others do, and that sometimes my worry isn't necessarily justified, but I've also caught many, many instances where my hyper-sensitivity to risk caught problems ahead of time that others didn't see coming. That's largely allowed me to strike a balance.

For a very long time now I've paid close attention to structural issues in systems, and for some reason that's just become my M.O. It seems like we're at a point in time where several structural issues brewing for years are all coming to a head at once and converging. The historical record has a clear pattern of one thing going totally sideways usually not being a big deal, but two or more things going completely sideways at once taking systems out of their safe operating envelope and introducing runaway feedback loops. The Nickel market on the London Metal Exchange is a recent example of this I would say. If it weren't for the negative feedback loop that was immediately applied things would have been very, very bad.

So... I'm watching this all very, very, very closely and I feel as if my feelings are justified. I think at this point, most people aren't neurotic enough.

One thing I've been curious about for a while now is exactly what sort of food goes into a three month emergency supply. I don't generally eat canned/preserved foods, so I can't just buy a three month supply of the food I usually eat, and my impression is that most canned food has best-by dates of a couple years; do you have to renew your emergency supply every few years?

From what I've started to dig into online seems like rice + beans + canned foods. And from what else I've seen you treat it as an extended pantry that you do FIFO rotation on.

What if prepping is an over correction against our increasing detachment from nature and the fundamental skills of living? In this case, preppers would be better off hiking, hunting, fishing, gardening, and learning homestead skills for the psychologically grounding effects, not some imagined protection from an unlikely and uncontrollable disintegration of society.

>preppers would be better off hiking, hunting, fishing, gardening, and learning homestead skills for the psychologically grounding effects

For me at least this is definitely an aspect of it that is very important. My assumption is that globalization will break down either within our lifetimes or that of our children and it's not too hard to imagine the same thing happening to us as happened at the end of the bronze age. There are many levels on which what we are doing is fundamentally unsustainable, so it's not a stretch to say that it will not be sustained. I think people have a rosy idea that technology will save us or that there will be some gentle transition, but so far technology has only increased demand for energy, and in terms of food production there are inputs to that to which there are no alternatives. Combine that with the picture demographics paint and it all doesn't add up to "it's going to be business as usual forever". We've already seen how vulnerable supply chains really are and eventually if enough of the supply chain collapsed then there comes a point where it becomes a positive feedback loop as the base level of complexity needed to support society goes away, so too does the complexity in that society. In such a case even the typical things preppers do are kind of useless as long-term solutions except for the stuff that is about those fundamental skills of living alongside nature. Even then there are a lot of assumptions baked in for a lot of people who have some of those skills currently like "I can go to a store and buy NPK fertilizer".

I see the typical prepper stuff as giving you a great level of preparedness for most everyday disasters you might face, but only giving you what amounts to a "solid buffer of time" to figure out how to survive in a fundamentally new reality. All things considered I think it's worth having that buffer and a level of calmness than not, but also in addition our family is starting to learn to live more off natural resources to build that base of skills. You need both.

A week or two is what I was always told a household should be prepared to manage without food/heat/water etc.

So I finally started and got some water storage etc.

I’m not prepping to live months in a shelter. I’m prepping so I wouldn’t be a burden on society at least for a week or two after a disaster.

I have stockpiled some food, after seeing the crazy supply chain and gas issues, but that’s about it

You and others like you have basically caused the problem since our JIT supply chains can't deal with such sudden surges.

Which is why it's far, far better to pre-panic buy than to panic buy.

Surges are one thing, but they're not going to end the system by themselves. There are other things which the supply chains can't deal with are what worry me more.

This is a good read on why its not a bad idea: https://hwfo.substack.com/p/the-surprisingly-solid-mathemati...

>The point of disaster planning for a hurricane, tornado, earthquake, or wildfire, is not to be “not-screwed.” It’s to be notably less screwed.

This times 1000.

Thanks for sharing this article! This is the exact type of analysis that resonates with me and that I do in a less formal manner and have been keeping my eyes on the horizon, so to speak, for a good decade now. There's a reason I'm alarmed.

I'm not a prepper, but I have some supplies. I think it's pretty responsible to have a 30-day supply of water and preservable food in the house.

Rice, beans, water, propane stove. Nothing major, but I could shelter in place for a month or so, if I had to.

In the words of Robert F. Kennedy: "Those who survive will envy the dead."

Kind of.

I’m genuinely interested in slowing down and easing into homestead kind of lifestyle but mostly because building sustainable systems is just an interesting engineering problem to me.

The debt free/prepper aspects just add to the fun a bit.

So I've told this story here a lot before. We've been working toward living the self-reliant 'homestead' lifestyle for 20+ years at this point. It's not something you can 'ease' into, and it's not slower. It's a different pace, yes, but it's certainly not slower.

If you rely on the land for your sustenance, and not just as a hobby, expect to spend an absolutely staggering amount of time, energy, and money (or more time and energy if you don't have this one) just getting it running, let alone running well.

We've literally been at this for decades, and are juuuuust getting to the point where this property might be able to sustain itself without our constant intervention.

Tbh I have never interpreted “slowing down” as necessarily less work.

In fact, yeah, just the opposite. Mowing my lawn with an expensive gas powered sit down lawn mower is fast… doing it with a manual push or scythe is slow, and more work.

I’m interpreting “slow” from more a macro perspective in relation to our worlds “2 day shipping” and groceries stores with anything imaginable.

Honestly, I think most people interpret it this way too.

This is a solid position to be in. We're so far out of balance with nature and living in a 'food bubble' essentially that what I'm actually most worried about is the correction of the food bubble essentially. Those who can live in harmony with nature will survive. Those can't? Let the hunger games begin.

Good luck to keep your 3 months of food supplies for yourself after the society has a few days without food. Have you planned to hide for months?

My friends Heckler and Koch assured me that won't be a problem.

My 3 months food supply plan includes people. I will advertise a 3 months supply and fillup on the hungry who come to loot. Ironic that they are the 3 months supply.

I'm going to include this in my plan. Got any recipes?

Humans are often referred to as long pigs. Any barbecue recipes should work fine.

Strap up friendo!

Got some potassium iodine for my kids and got supplies to ground my car... that's about it.

Why do you ground your car?

It probably can prevent your electronics from getting destroyed by making your car a sort of Faraday cage in the event of a nuclear EMP.

not really, though i have been considering long term repercussions for big purchases.

Small renovations on house are now a bit bigger with the idea that my kids will live with us late into their 20's early 30's due to the price of housing.