I think it's safe to use insurance rates as a proxy for the likelihood you'll get into a crash. Rates are almost invariably higher for every type of coverage if you live in a more densely populated area.

You're talking about fatalities though. There are 1000x more rear ends in the city but I have yet to see a car flipped over in the city like on the highway

Is that for third party only though? Perhaps also confounded by higher-prices of cars in cities vs rural areas when you do crash into something = higher costs.

From what I've seen, collision coverage tends to be used for cases where you made a mistake and need to get your own vehicle fixed. Generally all the coverage sections will get more expensive when you move to a more densely-populated area but the from the cases I've seen, collision coverage will tend to be significantly more expensive in Chicago than southern Illinois.