>Russia surprised China with its invasion timing & planning, in particular the mismanagement that turned this from a regional thing into a major international incident
It seems like China was caught off guard by the scale, like many other people. Possibly even most of the Russian government.
The assumption by almost everyone was that Russia would recognize the separatist regions that were already essentially owned by Russia. But instead they dropped paratroopers and sent tanks straight to the capital of a European country with 45 million people.
> But instead they dropped paratroopers and sent tanks straight to the capital of a European country with 45 million people.
One has to wonder how much of that difference in "geopolitical expectation" vs "strategic reality" comes down to military decisions around geography?
Geopolitically it would make sense for Russia to only go into the separatist regions and reinforce them, after all that's been their publicly stated goal since the beginning, such a "short-range invasion" into territories who are already mostly pro-Russian would have been a rather quick and done deal.
But from a military strategic perspective these areas might not be very good defensive positions long term, especially when the prospect is anything that involves masses of NATO forces. While just bit further West the Dnieper presents a very convenient geographical barrier, with Kyiv sitting right in the middle of it.
Ye well the war-war feel of the invasion really suprised me. After watching tank after tank roll over the border on some webcam I was not very cocky a couple of borders away.
But still I didn't grasp the scale of it until paratroopers helidropped at some airport. The risk in such a manouver is insane and was really a scarier insight that this is a real war than rows of tanks.
I really thought the "peacekeeping force" Russia sent in to separatist territories was it and what the US had been warning against.
It seems like China was caught off guard by the scale, like many other people. Possibly even most of the Russian government.
The assumption by almost everyone was that Russia would recognize the separatist regions that were already essentially owned by Russia. But instead they dropped paratroopers and sent tanks straight to the capital of a European country with 45 million people.