Actually I didn't. But everyone else did, even though Russian troops were surrounding Ukraine. Now Russia is under much more pressure than Putin ostensibly anticipated. They wrongly published a victory piece after just a few days into the invasion. Also they 'made' a referenadum to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. So, I wouldn't be so sure is all I am saying.

Yes I agree with you and Descartes the only thing we can be certain of as conscious observers is we exist.

But I moved on from moderate uncertainty leading to a default of skepticism.

Some actions have very predictable outcomes even if they aren't guaranteed. with those I like to use the vernacular that implies certainty. That's how I feel about nuclear exchange. But I don't associate the probabilities of expectation of nuclear exchange and invasion as conditional upon each other. A surprise outcome in an invasion of a nonnuclear non-nato state wouldn't lead me to feel a nuclear exchange probability suddenly becomes inverted similarly.

Because countries have invaded others during nuclear times. That should come as no surprise to a student of history even if many didn't expect Putin to in this particular instance.

But the pressing matter is would Putin use nukes? Would he use nukes if it means easy escalation to a mutual exchange where him and his country would end up as ash? Nah I don't believe he would unless some development allowed him to nuke with impunity.

I didn't expect them to invade that quickly. I thought it's just a gamble by Putin to get concessions. What's his endgame? Keep an occupation or install a puppet government?