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Yes, the guy is full of shit.

The basic thing is that while there are ways to play down-markets, down-markets and up-markets are not mirror image and are not simply "different ways to make money".

An up-market inherently creates - maybe-not-money - but the appearance of money, the availability of money, "liquidity". An healthy up-market inspires healthy production and makes the liquidity it generates really correspond to people having more wealth on average. An unhealthy up-market naturally involves mis-allocated resources and its liquidity thus becomes illusory and so it is followed by a down-market. A down-market eats liquidity and decreases production meaning the decreased-money people have really corresponds the people also having less stuff, on average. So given the downer that is a down market, profiting become harder on average. Some do great but the average person should assume that the law of averages to applies to them...




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