>I don't know that NATO has the guts to give Putin that bloody nose.
In 2018 during the course of a defensive action, the U.S. military massacred quite a few Russians.[0][1]
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Yeah, there's much more care and hesitation involved when the consequences are full-scale war, but nonetheless you'd better believe NATO would respond strong, including taking MAD right up to the line. It was Nixon and Kissinger after all, that invented Madman theory.
You bring up a good point, though: what if Putin suffers a conventional military defeat and has a break from reality, ordering launches? What then? I'm afraid the best we can hope for there is hesitation from their strategic rocket forces to carry out the order.
That's part of the thinking here, right? Mercenaries don't count, a jet that maybe violated airspace doesn't count, ...
What's the line, then? It's clearly not "no military action at all" as we're told right now. Maybe drive a few SAM setups over the border from Poland and take shots?
Like, this very moment, there are tons of NATO ISR assets in the air monitoring Russian movements and very likely relaying that information straight to Ukraine.
You missed my point a little bit. Of course mercenaries count when invading, but they don't count when you terminate them. Because you're shooting at mercenaries, not the Russian Army.
It takes no political or diplomatic capital at all to brand Russian mercenaries "enemy combatants" and then to promptly terminate them. It would be a little bit different if it were actual Russian soldiers.
In 2018 during the course of a defensive action, the U.S. military massacred quite a few Russians.[0][1]
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Yeah, there's much more care and hesitation involved when the consequences are full-scale war, but nonetheless you'd better believe NATO would respond strong, including taking MAD right up to the line. It was Nixon and Kissinger after all, that invented Madman theory.
You bring up a good point, though: what if Putin suffers a conventional military defeat and has a break from reality, ordering launches? What then? I'm afraid the best we can hope for there is hesitation from their strategic rocket forces to carry out the order.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham#Unofficial_R...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory