And risked an enormous escalation with a nuclear power? That would be reckless.
Don't get me wrong - I would also like to see decisive action to this attack. But escalating a relatively local dispute into a conflict between world powers would risk a WW. Moving in troops into a non-NATO ally would also be extremely difficult to explain on the world stage.
There probably is decisive action being implemented behind the scenes right now, it's just not visible to the public.
To be honest this war does make me doubt my assption that Putin is very rational and predictive. What is the rationale behind such a full-scale invasion? I don't see benefits that outweight the costs. I am happy to hear them, if they are any.
You can’t let countries with active conflicts enter NATO, you might as well declare war with Russia at that point. Russia was weaker back then so they may have resorted to nukes sooner.
NATO shouldn’t have expanded eastward, or the US should have left NATO. The West has been such utter fools in our negotiations with the world, being too powerful for too long has eroded diplomatic skill and left us ignoring the legitimate grievances of our adversaries and delivering one sided ultimatums.
As per him, Ukraine should be in Russia's domain due to the shared history/culture. And he's okay to pay any price for it. A side benefit for him is that he will be added to the long array of Russian leaders (Peter, Catherine, Lenin, Stalin., etc.) who are remembered for taking decisive actions(good and bad) for the Russian nation.
The "NATO Problem" is probably just a ruse to rile up support for his amibitions.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-rus... "Their intentions are different from ours too. Putin’s goal is not a flourishing, peaceful, prosperous Russia, but a Russia where he remains in charge. Lavrov’s goal is to maintain his position in the murky world of the Russian elite and, of course, to keep his money. What we mean by “interests” and what they mean by “interests” are not the same. When they listen to our diplomats, they don’t hear anything that really threatens their position, their power, their personal fortunes."
Well, my impression is similar regarding Putin, but I have also read opinions that this offensive is not the full-scale reckless invasion quite yet. Russian forces have supposedly invaded quite carefully and between each move they’re waiting to see the Ukrainian response. Like in a chess game, tit-for-tat. They are basically keeping themselves ready for anything, including a retreat or unexpected pivot.
A lot points to the fact that Putin has extensively prepared and calculated the benefits and costs of all the possibilities and endgames. Everything, including how we are talking about it here is potentially a component in this strategy.
What is difficult for all of us here in the West to comprehend, is how completely different the elite Russian POV is from our own. I highly recommend looking into the Gerasimov and Primakov doctrines.
At the same time, Putin is pretty old and has been in power for so long that there is a real chance that he has become narcissistic. There is a real chance that he has developed a misperception of his own strength and that this is a turning point. Something similar happened to Napoleon at a certain point.
If Ukraine is annexed by Russia, the defense of the Baltics becomes much more difficult, as Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania then become susceptible to Russian attack. (Moldova too but they're not in NATO)
In the graph of adjacent nations, Ukraine has a high betweenness centrality
> To be honest this war does make me doubt my assption that Putin is very rational and predictive. What is the rationale behind such a full-scale invasion?
He accurately perceived weakness.
> I don't see benefits that outweight the costs. I am happy to hear them, if they are any.
> Their intentions are different from ours too. Putin’s goal is not a flourishing, peaceful, prosperous Russia, but a Russia where he remains in charge. Lavrov’s goal is to maintain his position in the murky world of the Russian elite and, of course, to keep his money. What we mean by “interests” and what they mean by “interests” are not the same. When they listen to our diplomats, they don’t hear anything that really threatens their position, their power, their personal fortunes.
And the West's "punishment" may actually enrich the people who started this war:
> And perhaps most notably, Mr. Putin and his closest aides and partners in Moscow might not suffer much themselves from sanctions, analysts say....
> Some of the hard-line nationalist men around Mr. Putin were already on a Treasury Department sanctions list and accept that they and their families will no longer have substantial ties to the United States or Europe for the rest of their lives, said Alexander Gabuev, the chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
> “They are the powerful everybodies in today’s Russia,” he said. “There is a lot of posh richness. They’re totally secluded. They’re the kings, and that can be secured in Russia only.”
> Furthermore, because of their roles in state-owned enterprises and their business ties, they are “the very guys who are directly benefiting from the economy becoming more insulated, more detached from the outside world,” he added.
> There probably is decisive action being implemented behind the scenes right now
Many, many strongly worded letters will go out.
I’m sure Putin will cry himself to sleep tonight.
I dunno, Putins behavior reminds me of my 3 year old son. When he does something he knows he’s not supposed to do, he checks your reaction, and if you don’t respond he’ll see how far he can push it.
Don't get me wrong - I would also like to see decisive action to this attack. But escalating a relatively local dispute into a conflict between world powers would risk a WW. Moving in troops into a non-NATO ally would also be extremely difficult to explain on the world stage.
There probably is decisive action being implemented behind the scenes right now, it's just not visible to the public.