- Assuming it's A vs. B platform choices, then network effects: you'll actually have to get users to jump from Venmo, to LighteningMo. Hard stuff if there aren't compelling reasons
- Assuming LN is the infra that the Venmo of 2050 uses: I think you'd need a compelling reason for "Venmo" to drop (edit: or integrate LN into) their underlying infra, which is where I understand Plaid and inside baseball platforms b/t TX processors have very strong holds, and jump over to a blockchain stack.
- The volatility. It has to smooth out. I'm not going to be the next bitcoin pizza guy.
I think the second case is most likely. I don’t see crypto displacing any fiat or even financial rail system completely, but just taking a sizable share. I’ve seen very reasonable use cases in Southeast Asia in remittance. Western Union takes a ridiculous cut, and I wouldn’t be surprised if similar use cases are in Africa and South America as well.
- Assuming LN is the infra that the Venmo of 2050 uses: I think you'd need a compelling reason for "Venmo" to drop (edit: or integrate LN into) their underlying infra, which is where I understand Plaid and inside baseball platforms b/t TX processors have very strong holds, and jump over to a blockchain stack.
- The volatility. It has to smooth out. I'm not going to be the next bitcoin pizza guy.