There are amusical people in this world for whom making music (ie keeping pitch, keeping rhythm) is difficult in such a basic way that it’s hard to explain to others who just “get it.” Sort of being dyslexic I suppose. I can tell you from personal experience 2-3 years was not enough for me me on the violin but maybe 4 would have been. Oh well maybe it’s the “diligence” I didn’t have enough of. Anyway- I only disagree with you in the absolutes… generally your formula holds.
I started out playing punk rock and frankly if I listen to the stuff I was doing in the 90s, it sucked. My timing and pitch was pretty bad. Like, as bad as anyone including the people I know who say they are a-musical.
I've gotten measurably better.
I don't believe that this is a genetic thing. Rather, I just like goofing around with music so much that, over the decades, I've developed much better timing and pitch as well as my larger musical vocabulary.
I cannot speak for other people, but it's pretty obvious that while I am a pretty good musician now, I was not born with those abilities... they are the product of many, many hours of joyful exercise. If people can't find joy in sucking really bad at things (which is super helpful) that's probably something that can be overcome.
In the course of decades, unless someone has a severe and measurable impairment, the minor differences in people evens out to the point where I don't feel it makes much sense at all to bring genetics or even personal disposition into the discussion.
Added for clarity: folks should be able to make music however feels fun for them, as far as I am concerned.
I really like self-generating sounds created by modular synths. If coding is fun and feels rewarding for folks, my feeling is that AI or whatever is a wholly legit thing. Have fun and keep at it.