I'm not sure I'm following your argument. Are you suggesting it is highly unlikely Dan won't be comparable to a player ranked #652? That is, you are saying, on average, his key stats won't be comparable?

I don't think Dan is planning on becoming a top-10 contender on the PGA, I think he would just like to play a competitive game with them.

I would suggest that anyone who is ranked on the PGA, #652 on up, could be considered an expert in golf.