I do expect at least some companies will hit L4 within the decade(?) but it's going to be under limited conditions that won't include urban driving. Which could actually be a very useful capability but isn't the "don't own a car" future that some really are focused on.
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Level 4 _ High Automation
System capability: The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by factors such as road type or geographic area. • Driver involvement: In a shared car restricted to a defined area, there may not be any. But in a privately owned Level 4 car, the driver might manage all driving duties on surface streets then become a passenger as the car enters a highway.
Example: Google’s now-defunct Firefly pod-car prototype, which had neither pedals nor a steering wheel and was restricted to a top speed of 25 mph.
> "driver might manage all driving duties on surface streets then become a passenger as the car enters a highway."
This is the kind of setup I can't wrap my head around. The car might "require" you to take over when you exit the highway, but it can't exactly "make" you. If you fall asleep on the freeway and the car isn't willing/able to drive at the end of your journey, or in edge cases if you were to pass out, etc. what does it do when it gets to your designated exit, or to the final exit of a designated highway? Are there going to be a bunch of cars all stacked up with flashers on the shoulder by every off-ramp waiting for their people to wake up / quit playing on their phones and engage manual mode?
I'm thinking more like a semi truck. Get onto the freeway on-ramp, pull over and get out, then the truck continues on without you for miles before taking an off-ramp where a driver is waiting to handle the nearby streets. I expect truck stops in rural areas will (with DOT help) get special on/off ramps that are approved (maybe a special stop light?) so that trucks can go to a full service pump for fuel and get back on the freeway.
As you say, city driving is hard, but there are a lot of trucks that cross the US on freeways that are easy to automate.
I'm as skeptical about self-driving as just about anyone. But this seems to be getting into real edge case territory. Person falls asleep/is watching a movie and doesn't respond to increasingly urgent alerts? Is this really a problem? And is it a problem that's greater than fatigued driving today?
What happens when there isn't one? Roadworks, and accidents cause frequent closures of the breakdown lane. L3 has a lot of edge cases where the vehicle is supposedly too dumb to drive, but smart enough to know it shouldn't drive. It may be death by a thousand cuts.
Achieving the “don't own a car” future doesn't require automation, as much as urbanization. No car technology would help reduce the climate crisis we're facing, unless that technology eliminates private transit (as in rides not shared by multiple people, not as in private ownership of said transit)
As someone without a drivers license or a car, automation would still be wildly useful in driving down the cost of occasional journeys to locations inconvenient to serve with public transport to a point where it makes living without a car an option for more people.
You're right, though, that the challenge is that it also makes it easier for everyone to opt for cars over mass transit.
Tesla has not fallen behind, it's rapidly catching up. It's just not that easy to catch up if you are 10 years behind the competition and handicap yourself with inferior hardware. Maybe you are right and Karpathy will get fired, but at that point it's time to sell your tesla stock.
