The phrase “great resignation” also implies that people are just quitting, when in reality they’re changing jobs. The unemployment rate is lower than it’s been in a decade (except a month or two here and there), people who are resigning are getting new jobs.
U-3 is the figure most commonly reported. U-4,5,6 start to add in various groups of under-employed or discouraged workers. All of those figures are approaching pre-COVID levels and approaching the lows we saw in 2000. We also see U-6 closer to U-3 now than at many points in previous years (as the economy crashes, U-6 tends to get further away from U-3 as workers are forced into part-time or underemployment situations).
The seasonally adjusted U-3 fell below 3.9% in May of 2018 for the first time since October of 2000[0]. I might’ve been a bit glib about “a few months”, it was closer to two years, but the general sentiment that the unemployment rate is extremely low right now still stands. It’s far lower than the entire period of October 2000 to May of 2018, which coincidentally covers the vast majority of my working life.
There are still some issues around childcare that need to be worked out, which is probably the biggest source of the gap between U-3 and U-6 right now. But this is still one of the hottest labor markets in most of our lives.
4.5% in December, which puts it on-par with 2017 and lower than 2016. U-6, which is probably a better measure of actual slack in the labor market, is lower than any time in recent history except q3/4 2019.
7.3% is near historic lows on U6, but that doesn't capture childcare (like you mentioned) or retirements (at least as big of an "issue" as childcare).
Anti-work only actually comes into play in boomers who retired during the pandemic! Everyone else is effectively working if they can.
This is just a pure labor shortage - driven by demographic shifts that were years in the making and just now accelerated and by childcare shortages that are nearly fully state-driven
I wonder if it's the “great resignation” because so many millions of layoffs were pulled forward into early 2020 that the resignations stand out against a slowed down rate of firings.
