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> at the moment each is equally likely.

Impossible. Unicorn turds would be a variety of dark matter; if most of the apparent mass in the universe were made of unicorn turds, the dark matter hypothesis would be correct. (Unless they were very sparkly unicorn turds, emitting enough light for us to detect from far off.)

Further: they'd be a very boring kind of dark matter: the same kind of stuff as we, the earth, the moon, etc., are made of. And there's very good reason already to believe that there isn't enough of that to account for the gravitational anomalies you get if you assume no dark matter.

I therefore declare: Pr(anomaly comes from unicorn turds) is much smaller than Pr(anomaly comes from dark matter).




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